Moody's Investors Service says in a new report that the pressure on Mongolia's (B3 stable) credit profile will rise from 2021, as bonds worth $2.3 billion mature during 2021 – 2023. The country's ability to contain risks hinges on continued support from international creditors.

"Stronger commodity prices, disbursements from international lenders, and a steady flow of FDI have all supported Mongolia's debt payments over recent years," says Anushka Shah, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

However, refinancing needs will begin to mount in 2021 and spike in 2023, as bonds worth $2.3 billion mature.

"Assuming a broadly stable current account deficit and continued financing from international creditors, external risks should remain in line with the recent past," adds Shah.

Tighter fiscal and monetary policies have resulted in a significant build-up in buffers since 2015, with the current account deficit narrowing to 12.6% of GDP in 2019 from over 40% of GDP in 2011-13, and in an increase in foreign reserves. In addition, the country continues to benefit from a number of external funding agreements from both multilateral and bilateral lenders.

However, prospects for refinancing will hinge on the government's adherence to, and continued implementation of reforms, particularly on the fiscal front.

Moody's sees a likelihood of a loss of reform momentum, at least over the course of 2020, as parliamentary elections in June 2020 have already spurred an expansionary budget. There are also risks that the government's ongoing program with the IMF will lapse, given prolonged delays of tranche disbursements following the sixth review. The IMF program has anchored reform progress over recent years.

Strong growth dynamics remain a credit support. The coronavirus outbreak and a moderation in commodity prices will curb Mongolia's growth in 2020. But Moody's expects activity to recover in the second quarter and says that fundamental demand and supply dynamics for key mining exports of coal and copper should remain healthy, supporting growth and alleviating fiscal risks.

Subscribers can access the report "Government of Mongolia: External vulnerabilities continue to dominate credit profile" at: http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx…

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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Anushka Shah
VP-Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

Gene Fang
Associate Managing Director
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

Published Date:2020-02-27