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India's GDP expands 7% in Q3 www.asia.nikkei.com

NEW DELHI -- India's economy grew a surprising 7% in the October-December quarter despite the government scrapping high-value bank notes that constituted 86% of all cash in circulation.

Gross domestic product grew at a slightly slower pace in the third quarter of the fiscal year that began in April 2016 compared with the 7.4% uptick in the July-September period and the 7.2% growth in the previous quarter, showed data released by the Central Statistics Office on Tuesday.

The CSO also retained its full-year growth forecast of 7.1%, against 7.9% in the financial year that ended in March 2016. It recently upgraded the country's GDP growth for the previous fiscal year from an earlier estimate of 7.6%.

Tuesday's numbers came as a surprise as many analysts had expected the third quarter expansion to be below 6.5%, especially because the demonetization drive appeared to have hit consumption and business activity. A Reuters poll of economists had projected December-quarter GDP growth at 6.4%, while the State Bank of India's research department expected it to be 5.8%.

However, analysts found it strange that the CSO data showed 10% growth in private consumption in the quarter, the first such double-digit growth in India under the Modi government.

"What is important to note is that the agriculture sector has shown very robust growth at 6%," Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das told reporters. Manufacturing growth at 8.3%, unaffected by demonetization, "is again very, very satisfying," he added, commenting on the CSO data.

The third-quarter GDP figure also means that India remains the fastest-growing major economy in the world, surpassing China's 6.8% growth in October-December.

At a media briefing by chief statistician TCA Anant, reporters wondered whether the impact of demonetization was factored into the third-quarter estimates.

"As of now, the data which is available has been captured in these estimates," Anant responded.



Published Date:2017-03-01