The Senior Country Economist of ADB Declan Magee said “We are optimistic about Mongolia’s economic growth in 2018. In 2018, the economic growth will slightly slow down compared to 3.8 percent growth in 2017, which is a good indicator. The mining investments are the main factor of the growth. However, the risk factor for the growth is coal export, especially the transportation problems. The economic growth is expected to be intensified, going up to 4.3 percent in 2019.”

Inflation rate in Mongolia is forecast to be 8 percent in 2018 and 7 percent in 2019. The budget deficit is expected to reach 6.4 percent of GDP in 2018 and 5.1 percent in 2019. The main reason for this would be increase in expenditures and predicted decrease in revenue due to tax reforms.

Country Director of the ADB for Mongolia Yolanda Fernandez Lommen introduced the Outlook on the economy of Asian countries. She noted the opportunities to expand economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The regional economic growth was 6.1 percent in 2017 and is expected to be 6 percent in 2018 and 5.9 in 2019.

Moreover, she emphasized that the regional inflation rate is expected to be 2.9 in 2018, reason for which is the commodity price rises and consumer demand on the international markets.

B.Misheel

Mongolian and Chinese companies will be doing business in environment, mining, water supply, ger area re-planning, commerce, hotel, construction, meat and meat processing plant, railway, energy, banking and finance and tourism industries. For instance, Bodi International LLC signed a USD 450 million agreement on the Buuruljuut Thermal Power Plant project with the China State Construction Engineering company.

Mongolia-China trade volume reached USD 6.7 billion in 2017, which is 36 percent higher than that of 2016 and constitutes 63 percent of Mongolia’s foreign trade. Mongolia and China aim to see USD 10 billion trade turnover by 2020.
Kh.Aminaa

Mongolia will host the 2018 Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction on July 3-6.

The Mongolian Prime Minister, who is paying an official visit to China, met the UN Secretary-General on April 10 on the sidelines of the Boao Forum being held on April 8-11.

While congratulating Mr. Guterres on his appointment again, the Prime Minister expressed Mongolia’s commitment to maintaining international peace and security and advancing sustainable development as a member of the UN. The Prime Minister reported on the progress of preparations for the July conference.

The Secretary-General appreciated Mongolia’s role in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Agenda – 2030 while successfully advancing its democracy and contribution to regional peace and security.

The Secretary-General also recalled his meeting with Mongolian peacekeepers serving in conflict zones and commended their professionalism and dedication.

Mr. Guterres expressed the UN’s readiness to assist Mongolia in its social and economic development and multilateral diplomacy, wishing success in the large-scale projects that Mongolia is running with its neighbor countries.
Kh.Aminaa

They are improsened at the 461s detention center. Independent Authority Against Corruption (IAAC) consider Ch.Saikhanbileg and S.Bayar suspects of an alleged bribery case related to Oyu Tolgoi investment agreement.

In his speech, the PM said that Mongolia is one of initiators of this forum, which is committed to promoting regional economic integration and bringing Asian countries even closer to their development goals.

Mentioning that Mongolia has been attending the forum many times in state and government level, the PM underlined that the Boao Forum is important platform to expand regional trade and economic cooperation and seek possibilities to resolve pressing issues together.

“China’s initiative ‘The Belt and Road’ is possible to play a vital role to accelerate economic development and satisfy regional and global peace and stability by means of intensifying regional countries’ cooperation in infrastructure, trade, investment and finance and inter-citizen exchanges. For this reason, Mongolia supports this initiative from the beginning and implements its own initiative ‘Development Road’ in harmonization with ‘The Belt and Road’ and is actively working to create ‘Mongolia-Russia-China economic corridor’,” he said.

In addition, the PM emphasized, “Mongolia maintains its policy to develop mutual beneficial economic cooperation and take active part in regional political and economic processes. Mongolia is interested in developing a broad-range of cooperation with its neighbors and regional countries.”

Highlighting Mongolia’s reviving economy and improving investment and business environment, the Prime Minister U.Khurelsukh pointed out that the government aims at developing agriculture, food, light industry and tourism to diversify economy.

M.Unurzul

South Korea has been struggling to deal with fine dust particles from both home and coming in from China, as well as yellow dust from Mongolia during the winter and spring seasons.

A total of 42 fine dust warnings and advisories have been issued for Gyeonggi province, which surrounds Seoul city, this year, according to official data.

The total breaks down to 17 PM10 advisories, two PM10 warnings and 23 PM2.5 advisories, Yonhap reports.

The total is up from 36 warnings and advisories issued for the same period last year.

PM10 is fine dust of 2.5 to 10 micrometers in diameter, while PM2.5 is 2.5 micrometers smaller in diameter and can only be seen with an electron microscope.

A fine dust warning is issued when the level reaches over 300 micrograms per cubic meter (?/?), while an advisory is put in place when the level is over 150 ?/?.

Fine dust -- particles smaller than 10 micrometers -- can cause respiratory ailments and undermine the body's immune system.

The levels of fine dust and the duration of the warnings and advisories also grew this year from a year earlier due apparently to the increasing amount of fine and yellow dust from China.

The average dust concentration level was 149 parts per million in 2018, up from 132.8 ppm last year, while the duration was 19.8 hours this year compared with 16.3 hours in 2017.

"We assume the fine dust from China stays longer on the Korean Peninsula due to the wind moving slowly," a Gyeonggi provincial government official said.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has called for initiating a feasibility study on a China-Mongolia FTA and speeding up the construction of a cross-border economic cooperation zone, the Xinhua News Agency reported Monday. The two countries have also agreed to link the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative with Mongolia's Prairie Road development initiative to benefit people on both sides.

In May 2017, the IMF gave its approval to a total financial package worth around $5.5 billion for Mongolia, which revived the indebted nation's economy.

Now that there are signs of an economic recovery, Mongolian authorities need to shift their focus from a bailout program to long-term sustainable policies to fire up economic growth, and that's where China comes in.

Mongolia signed an FTA with Japan in 2015 but the deal has yet to play a great role in Mongolia's economy because the value of bilateral trade is relatively low. But the situation will be different for the FTA with China.

According to Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Qian Keming, China's trade with Mongolia reached $4.6 billion in 2016, accounting for 60 percent of Mongolia's total merchandise trade. If most of those goods can enjoy zero-tariff access to China's market, Mongolia's exports will gain momentum and shore up its economic growth.

Mongolia mainly exports natural resources, fur and raw materials to China, while it imports diesel fuel, machinery and equipment. In May 2016, China and Mongolia formally agreed on a comprehensive plan for an economic cooperation zone that straddles the border, which is intended to be an all-inclusive platform integrating international trade, logistics and e-commerce.

The composition of bilateral trade will be diversified if the two countries speed up the building of economic cooperation zones and focus more on areas such as energy, resource processing and equipment manufacturing.

Mongolia is sandwiched between China and Russia, and it is also an important transit country along the transcontinental railway connecting China with countries in Europe. The FTA and economic cooperation zones will help the landlocked nation convert its regional advantages into an export-oriented economy.

The China-Mongolia FTA is likely to be an engine of Mongolia's export growth. With the B&R initiative, China hopes to shore up free trade and let economies along the route share the dividends of China's economic growth.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

Over the two years since the agreement entered into force, trade turnover of the two countries reached USD 98.5 million, showing 72.1 percent growth compared to the period prior to the agreement's realization. In particular, trade turnover of the two countries reached USD 57.2 million in March, 2016, USD 77.6 million in March 2017 and USD 98.5 million in 2018.

Within the agreement, the two countries agreed that the Mongolian side would be exempt from customs duties of 7200 types of goods in 97 groups directly or by stages in 10-year period, while Japan would be exempt 9300 types of goods in 97 groups. A joint commission was set up to realize the agreement and also 13 sub-committees are working in scope of it.

Car, mining heavy trucks and its spare parts are making up the most part of Japanese goods under tariff concessions. As for Mongolia, it exported goods worth of USD 1.842 million to Japan in the first three months of 2018, showing 26.4 percent down compared to the same period of previous year.

B.Batchimeg

The IMF’s Board of Directors has praised the program’s implementation. According to Moody’s, the further delay or cancellation of structural economic changes will pose a risk to Mongolia in terms of receiving assistance from donor countries. As Mongolia faces remaining highly susceptible to periodic mining fluctuations, Moody’s analysts say that this process will eventually have a negative impact on the country’s credit rating.

Bills and amendments for the recapitalization of banks and the establishment of a budget council, which would work to tighten and administer state budget spending, have been delayed. Moody’s also noted that the pace of Mongolia's economic growth will be related to how Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi’s further development proceed.

According to Arnaud Soirat, chef executive for copper and diamonds at Rio Tinto, increased consumption from new technologies, including electric vehicles, will drive demand for the metal and its by-products, he said.

“We anticipate global market supply and demand will keep close to balance in 2019 and 2020,” he said, noting that after that the deficit will become increasingly evident.

The outlook is widely shared by other experts, including CRU analyst Hamish Sampson. According to him, unless new investments arise, existing mine production will drop from 20 million tonnes to below 12 million tonnes by 2034, leading to a supply shortfall of more than 15 million tonnes.

Over 200 copper mines currently in operations will reach the end of their productive life before 2035.
The situation looks even worse when considering that over 200 copper mines currently in operations will reach the end of their productive life before 2035, Sampson said on Monday.

Only if every single copper project currently in development or being studied for feasibility is brought online before then, including most discoveries that have not yet reached the evaluation stage, the market could meet projected demand, the consultant said.

Colin Hamilton, managing director of commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, fully agrees with Sampson. He told MINING.com on Tuesday that even when there was an apparent rise in copper inventories on exchanges around the world, which somehow has dented confidence in the metal, the outlook is very positive.

“What we’ve seen is a shift from invisible to visible stockpiles,” Hamilton said, adding that Chinese inventories so far this year are at the lowest levels in recent times.

Delivery to exchanges, however, does weigh on prices because of data-driven investors, which adds to the facts that shareholders are still somewhat opposed to companies investing in new projects and exploration. “They just want returns,” Hamilton said.

He believes the expected copper supply crunch will become “much more real” in 2019, due to the lack of mega-projects coming on stream before the mid-2020s and as global production will peak by the second half of next year.