Indonesian coal shipments to China slide amid new benchmark push www.reuters.com

Coal imports from China's largest supplier Indonesia tumbled 20% to 14.286 million tons in April, customs data showed on Tuesday, as Chinese buyers rejected a push by Jakarta to use its government-set benchmark in international sales, in a bid to increase royalties.
Indonesia began using the new government-set price, known as HBA and previously used only to calculate royalties, on March 1 to exert more national control over the value of both domestic and export transactions for the fuel commodity, but traders complain the index is opaque and more expensive.
Also weighing on Indonesian imports were lower prices for domestic coal in China, which dragged down overall coal imports by 16% year-on-year in April.
Domestic prices are at four-year lows, cutting into profit for imported coal.
China's coal imports from other top suppliers also fell last month. Russian shipments fell 13% in April from the same month last year to 7.397 million metric tons, the data showed.
Moscow is planning to support its coal industry, hit by Western sanctions, with discounts on rail transportation rates and guaranteed exports, according to a letter seen by Reuters and reports from coal-producing regions, which could support shipments to neighbouring China going forward.
Imports from Mongolia, mostly of coking coal, dipped 3% to 7.014 million tons last month. Imports from Australia also declined 3% in the month to 6.97 million tons.
Below are the details of imports from key suppliers with volume in metric tons:
Country
April 2025
Year-on-year % change
Jan-April 2025
Year-on-year % change
Indonesia
14,285,823
-20%
66,871,048
-5%
Russia
7,397,488
-13%
27,372,699
2%
Mongolia
7,013,800
-3%
24,503,886
3%
Australia
6,969,476
-3%
23,419,364
2%

Mongolia and Indonesia Plan Visa-Free Travel www.en.tempo.co

Over 17,000 Participants Registered to Run in the “Ulaanbaatar Marathon-2025” International Race www.montsame.mn

Registration for the "Ulaanbaatar Marathon-2025"  will close today, on May 20, 2025.
As of today, a total of 17,744 participants have registered for this race. Among them, 2,951 have signed up for the shortest distance of 1.5 km, which is open to families as well as participants in wheelchairs and visually impaired individuals. The 5 km run attracted the most participants, with over 10,000 registered, while 2,369 participants signed up for the 10 km distance.
A total of 1,930 participants have registered for the 21km half marathon, categorized into age groups of 18-34, 35-54, and 55 and above. For the 42km full marathon, 280 participants have registered in the age group of 18 and above. Individuals with disabilities can also run in the 21km half marathon and 42km full marathon under their designated categories.
Bib numbers for participants in the 21km and 42km races are now being distributed at the Sports Palace and Khangarid Palace. Additionally, bib numbers are being provided to citizens who have registered for the 1.5km and 5km races at the offices of the Physical Education and Sports Committee in the nine districts of the Capital City.
Bib numbers for those registered to run in the "Ulaanbaatar Marathon 2025" are being distributed at the following locations.
-1st floor of the Sports Palace
-The large tent at Sukhbaatar Square
-Khangarid Palace, Khan-Uul District, Ulaanbaatar  
“Ulaanbaatar Marathon- 2025” will commence on May 24, 2025

ADB Launches New Partnership Strategy to Support Mongolia’s Diversified, Inclusive, and Sustainable Growth www.adb.org

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has launched its new Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Mongolia for 2025–2028 to support diversified, inclusive, and sustainable growth.
Over the four-year CPS period, ADB’s operations will focus on three strategic priorities: promoting diversified and inclusive growth; strengthening sustainability and resilience; and advancing empowerment and opportunity. These priorities will be supported by crosscutting efforts to enhance private sector participation, accelerate climate action, strengthen governance and institutional capacity, drive digital transformation, and empower women and girls.
“Our new strategy aligns closely with Mongolia’s national development priorities, including the government action plan,” said ADB Country Director for Mongolia Shannon Cowlin. “It addresses key economic challenges such as the reliance on mineral exports and related macroeconomic vulnerabilities, while supporting private sector development and promoting growth in agribusiness, financial institutions, and renewable energy.”
Under the first priority, ADB will strengthen public sector and macroeconomic management through support for debt management, domestic resource mobilization, sovereign wealth fund development, and state-owned enterprise reform. It will promote private sector growth and access to finance by improving the country’s investment climate, advancing public–private partnerships, strengthening banking sector stability, and supporting critical minerals mining. ADB will also improve regional and domestic connectivity by enhancing transport infrastructure, lowering logistics costs, and facilitating trade.
To advance the second strategic priority, ADB will help improve institutional and policy frameworks for climate action, mobilize sustainable finance, and increase access to green loans and bonds. It will support rural and disaster resilience by developing agribusiness; strengthening food security; protecting the environment; and enhancing disaster preparedness, response, and risk financing.
ADB will also invest in sustainable and resilient infrastructure across urban and rural areas. This will include improving urban and transport services in ger areas in Ulaanbaatar, as well as aimag (provincial) and soum (district) centers, developing affordable and low-carbon housing, and supporting satellite cities. In the energy sector, ADB will accelerate the energy transition through reforms and investment, support electricity and heat decarbonization, and modernize the power grid through digital technologies.
Under the third priority, ADB will promote empowerment and opportunity by building a skilled workforce, strengthening health services, and advancing adaptive social protection. Education support will focus on technical and vocational training, inclusive foundational learning, and higher education aligned with labor market needs. In health, ADB will support hospital governance, primary care, emergency services, and the development of regional hospitals and health centers. Social protection efforts will include system reforms, better data for targeting, adaptive strategies, and labor market programs to reduce dependence on cash assistance.
In the four-year CPS period, ADB will continue to play a leading role in supporting Mongolia’s sustainable development through strong coordination across its sovereign, nonsovereign, advisory, and knowledge operations, and by maintaining close collaboration with development partners across all sectors.
ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—50 from the region.

Mongolia issues e-visas to 16,930 foreigners in first 4 months of 2025 www.xinhuanet.com

A total of 16,930 foreigners from 53 countries and regions were granted Mongolian electronic visas in the first four months of 2025, marking a 0.4 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2024, local media reported on Tuesday, citing Mongolia's Immigration Agency (MIA).
More than 2,282 visa applications were rejected by MIA in January-April due to missing paperwork, it said.
Currently, Mongolia's economy relies most heavily on the export of mineral resources. Tourism promotion is considered one of the priorities for diversifying the country's economy and improving the competitiveness of its tourism in the global market.
In view of this, the Mongolian government has decided to continue the "Years to Visit Mongolia" tourism program until 2028.
According to the Immigration Agency, electronic visas for foreigners were officially launched on Oct. 1, 2021. In 2024, Mongolia issued electronic visas to around 92,400 foreign citizens.

How the End of World War II Changed Mongolia’s Fate www.thediplomat.com

This year marks the 80th anniversary of the Allied forces’ – the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Soviet Union – defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II in 1945. In the general historical narrative, this era marked the beginning of a rule-based international order but also a start of another long conflict: the Cold War. To Mongolia, however, the end of WWII in 1945 marked something more nationalistic. After the war, Mongolia declared its independence and sovereignty and began to establish itself diplomatically on the world stage. 
In commemoration of the 80th anniversary, President of Mongolia Khurelsukh Ukhnaa attended the military parade celebrating Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia. The Mongolian delegation included Defense Minister Byambatsogt Sandag, and the Mongolian Army marched through Red Square as part of the parade. 
In his remarks, Khurelsukh recollected Mongolia’s support and contribution to the Soviet Union’s war with Nazi Germany since day one. Khurelsukh also visited the “War Horses” monument along with veterans who served in the war. The “War Horses” monument was built in 2015, on the 70th anniversary of the end of the war, to commemorate Mongolia’s supply of horses – along with wool and fur – to the Soviet Union during the war.
Mongolian heads-of-state previously participated in the Victory Day celebrations on major anniversary years: in 1995 (late President of Mongolia Ochirbat Puntsag), 2005 (Enkhbayar Nambar), 2010 (Elbegdorj Tsakhia), and 2015 (also Elbegdorj). 
When people talk about Mongolia, there is a tendency, whether intentional or unintentional, to reduce the country to the shadow of its two large neighbors: Russia and China. Sometimes the result is an obscured understanding of Mongolia’s historical significance and why certain global turning points – such as the Yalta Agreement – were history-making for Mongolia’s own political experience. Two such major events shaped Mongolia’s foreign policy, and its national identity, during the end of World War II. 
In February 1945, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin met for the Yalta Conference. According to the U.S. State Department’s summary, “At Yalta, Roosevelt and Churchill discussed with Stalin the conditions under which the Soviet Union would enter the war against Japan and all three agreed that, in exchange for potentially crucial Soviet participation in the Pacific theater, the Soviets would be granted a sphere of influence in Manchuria following Japan’s surrender.” 
This agreement also involved Outer Mongolia, which had declared independence from China in 1924 but was not yet widely recognized as a state. At Yalta, Stalin asked his wartime allies – the United States and the United Kingdom – to consent to Outer Mongolia’s maintaining of its “status quo.” Notably, China, then ruled by the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek, was not represented at the Yalta Conference.
It would be historically accurate to state that the Yalta Agreement, and the events that followed, decided Mongolia’s fate.
In August of 1945, the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance was signed. The agreement viewed Mongolia as a geostrategic buffer zone. Mongolian diplomat and historian Bayarkhuu Dashdorj wrote that accepting Mongolia’s sovereignty was one of the three things Stalin had demanded from his Chinese counterpart. Chiang, for his part, had tried to wrest back nominal control over Outer Mongolia, in exchange for offering “high autonomy” and allowing the positioning of Soviet troops in the territory. But Stalin refused Chiang’s “request to return the Mongolians to the Chinese sovereignty.” 
Two months after the signing of the Sino-Soviet Treaty, in October 1945, a national referendum declared Outer Mongolia an independent country, creating the Mongolian People’s Republic (MPR.) 
Mongolia’s alliance with the Soviet Union in both fronts of the war – against Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany – played a pivotal role to convince Joseph Stalin to support Mongolia’s independence. Stalin wanted to maintain that close relationship. To the Soviet Union, the Mongolia-Manchuria border was also both a strategic location as well as a point of vulnerability. Thus, Mongolia’s independent status was extremely important to the Soviets to protect their own borders against foreign invasion. 
The Mongolian leaders seized on this specific historical moment to cement their country’s independence by utilizing diplomacy and geopolitical mechanisms. In Mongolia, this feat is recognized and celebrated as a victory for national identity and determination. What Mongolia celebrates in May is not only the Allied Forces’ defeat of Nazi Germany, but also its own historical turning point that changed Mongolia’s international presence once and for all. The agreement by the major powers to maintain the existence of an independent Outer Mongolia forced Chiang to acquiesce. The October 1945 referendum ended an era of uncertainty. 
Many Mongolian historians and scholars argue that it was Mongolia’s own global diplomacy that allowed the country to be active on a world stage, thus convincing the great powers to see the significance of Outer Mongolia
While Mongolia recognizes the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII and the year that marked the country’s independence, Ulaanbaatar is also aware that geopolitical circumstances are once again changing rapidly. The former allied forces – the U.S., the U.K., and Russia – that defeated Nazi Germany are no longer allies; their partnership fell apart almost immediately after the war. Today, relations between Russia and Europe are at their worst in decades due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 
Against that backdrop, Mongolia’s foreign policy continues to protect its national interests and recognize the traditional value of historical diplomacy, as evidenced by Khurelsukh’s visit to Moscow for Victory Day. However, Mongolia has evolved and modernized its way of foreign affairs and actively reaches out to its “third neighbor” partners as well. 
Given Mongolia’s landlocked position, balancing between China and Russia has always been a prerequisite for the successful application of its foreign policy agenda. Considering the current foreign and security issues, one can’t help but to wonder what global partnerships, and geopolitics will look like when the world celebrates the centennial anniversary of the end of World War II in 20 years. 
BY
Bolor Lkhaajav is a researcher specializing in Mongolia, China, Russia, Japan, East Asia, and the Americas. She holds an M.A. in Asia-Pacific Studies from the University of San Francisco.

Mongolia, EU set to boost economic growth www.qazinform.com

Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia and Minister of Economy and Development Gantumur Luvsannyam received resident and non-resident Ambassadors Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the European Union Member States to Mongolia, MONTSAME reports. 
At the meeting, which is held annually in commemoration of Europe Day, the current state of the Mongolian economy and the Government’s ongoing policies and reform measures were presented in detail. The participants of the meeting exchanged views on future areas of cooperation with the European Union. In particular, the Deputy Prime Minister underscored the importance of strengthening cooperation with the European Union and its member states to implement necessary policies and reforms aimed at accelerating economic growth by enhancing the education sector and enabling human capital mobility, while reinforcing the foundations of a free market economy.
The ambassadors expressed readiness to support the policies of the Government of Mongolia and to collaborate in promoting start-up businesses, expanding cooperation in investment, and the private sector.
As earlier reported, over the past two decades, Mongolia has deployed over 23 thousand troops to the United Nations peacekeeping operations. 
BY
Adlet Seilkhanov

Internationally Accredited Laboratory to Be Established for the Mongolia-France Uranium Project www.montsame.mn

The third Session of the Mongolia-France Intergovernmental Working Group was held in Paris, the French Republic, on May 15, 2025.
The two sides highlighted that the bilateral relations and cooperation between Mongolia and the French Republic have actively developed in recent years. The third Session was held on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. 
At the Session of the Working Group, the two sides discussed cooperation in politics, economy, trade, investment, mining, emergency management, people-to-people exchanges, and energy transition, and exchanged views on international and regional issues. The two sides commended the progress of joint projects and initiatives, agreed upon during recent high-level visits and meetings, and reaffirmed commitment to accelerate their implementation.
Minister of Mongolia and Chief of the Cabinet Secretariat Uchral Nyam-Osor emphasized the need for transparency, accountability, and a public oversight mechanism in the Mongolia-France Uranium Project. The Minister proposed the establishment of a Public Oversight Council and the creation of an internationally accredited laboratory that meets global standards to conduct measurements and analysis of radiation effects on people, livestock, wildlife, and the environment. The two sides reached a mutual understanding on this matter. Furthermore, Mongolia and France reaffirmed the shared commitment to expanding cooperation in all areas of mutual interest and elevating the partnership between the two countries to a strategic partnership.
Chief of the Cabinet Secretariat Uchral Nyam-Osor noted that Mongolia prioritizes contributing to global efforts to combat climate change and desertification, and protecting the environment. France affirmed its support for Mongolia’s successful hosting of the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in 2026.
At the Session, the Civil Aviation Authorities of Mongolia and France signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in Upgrading Air Navigation Services and Technology. The third Session of the Mongolia-France Intergovernmental Working Group was co-chaired by Minister of Mongolia and Chief of the Cabinet Secretariat Uchral Nyam-Osor and Secretary General of the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs of the French Republic Anne-Marie Descôtes.

A Matter of Choice: UNDP Report Calls For Inclusive AI to Expand Opportunities for Mongolians www.undp.org

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) launched its flagship Human Development Report 2025, highlighting a global slowdown in human development and calling for inclusive, people-centered strategies to harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
The 2025 Human Development Report -"A matter of choice: people and possibilities in the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI)" shows that the world saw the smallest increase in global Human Development Index (HDI) since 1990, excluding the COVID-19 years. Instead of rebounding, progress has stagnated, threatening to delay achievement of the 2030 Agenda by decades.
The report advocates for a transformational reset anchored in three key directions:
Building a complementarity economy where people and AI collaborate,
Embedding human agency across the AI lifecycle, and
Investing in education and health systems fit for the 21st century.
Mongolia ranked 104 out of 193 countries and territories in the report with a HDI value of 0.747, an increase of 26 percent since 1990. Between 1990 and 2022, Mongolia’s life expectancy at birth increased by 12.9 years, mean years of schooling increased by 0.9 years and expected years of schooling increased by 3.5 years while gross national income per capita increased by 148.4 percent, according to the report. 
His Excellency, Baatarkhuu Tsend, Minister of Digital Development, Innovation and Communications, emphasized the country’s AI ambitions and stated, “Mongolia is committed to becoming a regional leader in responsible AI. We have already made important strides, from the development of E-Mongolia platform to the National Big Data and AI strategy which is in the making. But we must now ensure that digital transformation leaves no one behind, from rural communities to future generations,” during his opening remarks. 
Statement of His Excellency Gantumur Luvsannyam, the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Development of Mongolia, was delivered by the Advisor to the Minister, Mr. Battumur Batsuuri, and stated, “Our country’s progress in digitalization and development is commendable. But this report is a timely reminder that growth without equity, and technology without ethics, will not deliver the inclusive and prosperous future we envision. Our policies need to put people, not systems, at the center of innovation,” during his opening remarks. 
According to the report, the risks of inequality are growing, particularly between high- and low-HDI countries. While 60% of global survey respondents expressed optimism about AI’s potential to improve their work and lives, gaps in access, skills, and infrastructure remain stark—especially in developing economies.
“AI is not just a technology, but also a mirror reflecting our values and priorities. Used wisely, it can power Mongolia’s Vision 2050 and accelerate the achievement of the SDGs. We need to not just ask what AI can do, but what it can do for people, so it truly expands our choices and opportunities,” said Ms. Matilda Dimovska, UNDP Resident Representative in Mongolia. 
Mr. Philip Schellekens, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at UNDP, provided a comprehensive overview of the key insights and recommendations of the Report, highlighting their implications for Mongolia.
The event also featured opening remarks by Ms. Amarzaya Tumurbaatar, Executive Director of the Mongolian Youth Council, who shared youth perspectives on the future, human development, and the role of AI, while emphasizing the importance of youth participation. In his closing remarks, Mr. Jaap van Hierden, UN Resident Coordinator in Mongolia, underscored the need to invest in people’s capabilities, ensure inclusive digital access, and strengthen public infrastructure to empower individuals and communities.
The launch event featured a high-level panel discussion exploring how Mongolia can leverage AI to expand people’s choices and opportunities, moderated by Ms. Dulamkhorloo Baatar, Founder of Nest Center for Journalism Innovation. Speakers included:
Honorable Zoljargal Jargalsaikhan, MP and Chair of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Innovation and Digital Policy;
Mr. Munkhbat P., Director General, Ministry of Digital Development;
Ms. Tana Jambaldorj, Secretary of the National Committee for Vision 2050; and
Ms. Khongorzul B, Specialist, Sustainable Development and Social Policy Division, Integrated Development Policy and Planning Department, Ministry of Economy and Development
Ms. Enkhsaikhan Nyamsuren, Co-Founder, Empasoft Institute of Technology.
The panel provided a valuable space to explore how Mongolia can localize the report’s recommendations and align AI transformation with national priorities.
The Human Development Report’s central message is clear: AI’s impact on people and societies will depend not on what AI can do, but on how we choose to govern it. As countries like Mongolia embrace digital transformation, there is a window of opportunity to build smarter, fairer, and more resilient societies.
The 2025 Human Development Report is available at https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2025
***
Media Contacts:
In New York: stanislav.saling@undp.org  +1 347 653 1980 or victor.garrido.delgado@undp.org  +1 917 995 1687
In Bangkok: cedric.monteiro@undp.org  (+66 2 304 9100)
In Mongolia:erdenesukh.otgonbayar@undp.org (9909-6434)
About UNDP: UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and the planet. Learn more at undp.org or follow at @UNDP.

Chinese trader who made $1.5B on gold builds giant bet on copper price www.bloomberg.com

A reclusive Chinese billionaire whose prescient gold trades turned into an eye-catching windfall has now become the country’s biggest copper bull, amassing a bet worth nearly $1 billion in a market jolted by escalating competition between the US and China.
Bian Ximing, who made an early fortune in plastic tubes before seeking a quiet life in Gibraltar, has made waves over the last two years with his investment in Chinese gold futures, betting on what he argued would be a global effort to reduce reliance on the dollar and counter inflation worries. His fund came in just as bullion was beginning a record-breaking ascent — and made roughly $1.5 billion in profit in the process, according to Bloomberg calculations.
Today, as a trade war and potential truce roil markets, Bian and his brokerage, Zhongcai Futures Co., are responsible for the largest net long position in copper contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, according to people familiar with the matter and bourse data. After 10 months of purchases, at the end of Friday they were long nearly 90,000 tons in copper futures, counting Bian’s own investment and funds he manages through Zhongcai — enough to dwarf any peers.
It’s a position that the 61-year-old tycoon, who personally accounts for the lion’s share of the Zhongcai investment, intends to maintain, the people said, even after geopolitical ructions prompted some of his investors to pull out — an expression of confidence in the metal and in the economy of the world’s largest consumer. The people asked not to be named as company discussions are private.
“It’s a quite unique copper position that is worth following,” said Li Yiyao, a vice president of Cofco Futures Co.’s Shanghai North Bund division. “It reflects a very long-term, bullish sentiment on the metal based on fundamentals — which differs from the usual mid or short-term strategies we see in the market.” She added that Bian’s counterintuitive moves during the worst of the trade turmoil, standing firm as many others exited, were particularly remarkable.
A handful of larger-than-life figures have dominated Chinese commodities trading since the economic boom began two decades ago, transforming the industry. Bian ranks alongside Xiang Guangda, founder of nickel pioneer Tsingshan, or magnates like He Jinbi, the missing founder of Maike Metals International Co., and Ge Weidong, founder of Shanghai Chaos Investment, one of the earliest commodities-focused hedge funds in China.
Though his methodology has differed from that of traditional physical traders, his rivals and managers describe the austere Bian as having a deep understanding of a market that has become increasingly difficult to read for those outside China.
The billionaire, described by those who know him as unassuming and direct, has also stood out for his seclusion, running his team of Chinese managers and the brokerage he took over two decades ago via video call from the southern tip of the Iberian peninsula. Since moving from eastern China more than a decade ago, attracted by warmer weather and proximity to European assets, Bian makes few trips home to visit his investment team and factories.
That hasn’t stopped him from garnering a loyal following in China for his Warren Buffett-like online musings on investment philosophy, keenly parsed by anyone eager to emulate a strategy closer to that of a traditional Western hedge fund than the more speculative approach of homegrown traders.
A good investor must “let go of his own ego and be less obsessed, and then choose the right targets and be stubborn,” Bian wrote in one of his periodic posts in January. “When choosing targets, focus on trends. When implementing projects, focus on timing. When maintaining projects, focus on costs.”
His lieutenants occasionally write up their own “reflections” on the company site.
Bian declined to comment for this story. Zhongcai did not respond to emailed queries. Bloomberg used bourse data and conversations with multiple business associates, rivals and other traders to build a picture of his operations and trading.
Bian isn’t alone in seeing an upward trajectory for copper, an industrial metal vital for the electrification of the world. The long-term dynamics of the energy transition and limited mine supply have long been highlighted by bulls.
Commodity traders in the last few months have been chasing gains from Trump’s copper tariff threat, which has drawn cargoes to US warehouses and left the rest of the world short. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.’s metals boss Kostas Bintas, one of the more outspoken boosters, suggested in March that copper could reach $12,000 or $13,000 a ton, well above previous records and current levels closer to $9,500.
Still, a more volatile market has made the metal’s next move hard to predict, while prices at historically high levels are also testing the resilience of large physical consumers in China.
Bian has been in and out of copper before. He held short positions through much of 2024, even as the rest of the world took a rosier view of the Chinese economy. Just before the US election in November, he began a switch to an emphatic long position, in anticipation of a Trump victory that could prompt investment in local manufacturing, and of Chinese economic stimulus efforts.
He accelerated his purchases from early January, for his own investment and with managed funds, with Zhongcai holdings reaching a peak near 40,000 lots, or 200,000 tons of the metal, in early April, before Trump began his escalation of tariffs, exchange data shows. He later moved some of the brokerage’s positions to CME Group’s Comex, to capture US turbulence, two of the people familiar with his investments said. As at the end of April, Zhongcai’s copper bet generated a total profit of around $200 million, according to the Bloomberg calculation.
According to the people, he currently holds no short positions in copper.
Bian has concentrated his bets in Shanghai, a move that ultimately proved lucky. When copper prices briefly tumbled amid tariff uncertainties last month, Chinese markets were closed for a national holiday, sparing Bian and other Shanghai-based traders from the selloff and rebound.
Some of his investors have backed out since then, two of the people said, rattled by the trade war and fears of a global recession.
But Bian has increased his own long positions in copper in the past month in Shanghai and beyond, telling backers that he sees economic resilience in China and a continued rise for the metal. Rival traders say his is also a bet on China’s shift to a higher-tech — and so copper-hungry — economy, and on the ample liquidity to support it.
The position “is not big enough to distort the market, but it does provide a rare insight into Bian’s strategy,” said Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Management Co. “People in the market have been tracking his gold and copper trades closely.”
Born in 1963, in the aftermath of China’s brutal Great Leap Forward modernization campaign, Bian grew up in Zhuji, a township in the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang. Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution interrupted his education, but he ultimately graduated from a vocational school affiliated with the central bank in 1985.
In 1995, as China was about to set off on its upward trajectory, he founded a factory making high-end plastic tubes. Like many of his peers, he then rode a wave of massive economic transformation, building up an empire ranging from construction material to financial services and property, with units in the US, UK and Hong Kong, and factories in India. He purchased the futures broker that became Zhongcai in Shanghai in 2003, naming it after his holding company Zhongcai Merchants Investment Group Co. Other investments include a major stake in the movie-making arm of Alibaba Group.
During his early years in chemical derivatives and plastics, Bian was already famous for his independent trading strategies when it was more common for others to work together to squeeze out rivals holding opposing positions.
Not everything has gone to plan for Bian. The same flight to safety that has buoyed his gold positions has also hurt his equity and local municipal bond investments, people familiar with his holdings said, generating some losses.
“There are traps and opportunities everywhere — opportunities in risks and traps in opportunities,” Bian wrote in a blog post from last year. “Investment is essentially a game of survival.”
(By Alfred Cang)