As an observer at the World Export Development Forum (WEDF) 2023, where Trade Finance Global (TFG) was a media partner, TFG had the opportunity to discuss these challenges and prospects with local and international delegates.

Mongolia, a nation steeped in history and folklore, finds itself at a crossroads.

As a landlocked country sandwiched between Russia and China, it faces unique challenges yet possesses a strategic geographic advantage.

The legend of the Mongol Empire still resonates with many–as I was reminded when visiting Ulaanbaatar’s dominating 40 meter equestrian statue of Genghis Khan–but today’s Mongolia is carving a different path on the global stage, trying to manoeuvre complex geopolitics and economic dynamics while preserving its sovereignty and identity.

As an observer at the World Export Development Forum (WEDF) 2023, where Trade Finance Global (TFG) was a media partner, I had the opportunity to discuss these challenges and prospects with local and international delegates.

Mongolia trade overview

According to John Miller, Trade Data Monitor, Mongolia’s primary exports include coal, copper ores, and crude petroleum, accounting for over 40% of its total exports.

China is the principal recipient of these exports, making up 92% of the total export value. On the other hand, Mongolia’s top import partners are Russia and China, accounting for 33% and 62% of total imports, respectively.

Mongolia’s economic trajectory as a landlocked developing country (LLDC) presents certain opportunities and challenges.

According to the United Nations, LLDCs like Mongolia face particular issues due to their lack of direct territorial access to the sea and isolation from world markets, which translates to high transit costs and decreased competitiveness.

The landlocked paradigm

However, the paradigm is shifting.

Rabab Fatima, Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), noted in her opening statement at the WEDF 2023, “Digitalisation reduces many of the entry barriers to international trade facing MSMEs and startups in LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS. It significantly reduces the transit-transport costs that serve as a major hurdle for LLDCs.”

Despite the formidable economic challenges, there’s an underlying resilience and adaptability that propels Mongolia forward.

This determination was highlighted by the country’s President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa in his speech.

One Billion Trees

While acknowledging the difficulties faced by LLDCs, he emphasised the ongoing efforts to counter these challenges, including the “One Billion Trees” campaign.

The initiative aims to combat desertification and mitigate the impact of climate change in Mongolia, a testament to the nation’s commitment to a greener future.

Khurelsukh said, “I firmly believe that these national movements will not only expedite the development of the environment, food, and agriculture sectors but also support regional trade and investment. Consequently, they will yield positive outcomes in the pursuit of sustainable development goals, including employment growth, poverty reduction, and the creation of a healthy and safe living environment for our citizens.”

In addition to the environmental commitment, Mongolia’s economic endowment plays a crucial role in its strategy for growth. Nestled between economic powerhouses China and Russia, Mongolia lies at the intersection of significant global infrastructure projects such as Russia’s Trans-Eurasia railway and China’s Silk Road Economic Belt.

Mongolia’s role in OBOR and CMREC

Mongolia sits along the shortest path connecting Europe and Asia, making it a key area for China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative.

However, reliance on China and Russia carries risks of economic over-dependence, as does the potential for geopolitical conflict.

The rise of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor (CMREC) carries promises of economic progress but also potential pitfalls.

As of 2023, China receives 92% of Mongolia’s exports, highlighting the nation’s economic vulnerability.

In response to these geopolitical pressures, Mongolia has pursued a policy of diversifying its alliances.

Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia, His Excellency Amarsaikhan Sainbuyan, has spoken about the nation’s aspiration for “enhanced economic independence”.

This strategy is embodied in the Third Neighbor Policy, seeking stronger relations with global democracies, including the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, and members of the EU.

Yet, the execution of these policies remains a complex task, which calls for effective domestic strategies and international cooperation. With international support, the opportunities for economic diversification are vast, with an emphasis on sustainable growth. Mongolia’s potential lies in various sectors, such as green and organic farming, digital services, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Farming and agriculture – landlocked to land-linked?

Rabab Fatima further highlighted the potential for organic farming in her speech, emphasising that “North America and Europe account for most of the sales of organic products, with 90% market share…However, LDCs, LLDCs, and SIDS are yet to tap the potentials of vibrant organic farming sector.”

Mongolia, with its rich agricultural heritage, has a unique opportunity to transition into sustainable, organic farming practices, tapping into a near $500 billion market. But for this, a significant shift in domestic farming practices and overcoming regulatory hurdles will be needed.

In the context of the global digital boom, Mongolia also needs to tap into the global digital services market, which reached $3.82 trillion in 2022. Again, the transition is a significant task that requires structural changes, investments in digital infrastructure, and human capital.

As Mongolia charts its path towards a sustainable, diversified economy, the phrase “landlocked” might give way to “land-linked.”

Navigating the complexities of this transformation demands wise domestic strategies, effective international collaborations, and a keen understanding of global trends.

Trade is about people, not goods and services

As President Ukhnaa said, “Trade is not about goods and services, it’s about people.” The key to Mongolia’s success lies not in its geography but in the strength, resilience, and vision of its people.

Mongolia sits in a unique and challenging position.

Its status as a landlocked developing country demands innovative approaches to trade, economic development, and regional cooperation. While the nation’s story is deeply intertwined with the fabled Mongol Empire, its future is inextricably linked to the complex geopolitical dynamics of Russia and China, and its ambitious Third Neighbor Policy.

Amid this context, the World Export Development Forum in Ulaanbaatar has showcased Mongolia’s quest for a sustainable, balanced, and inclusive economic future.

The reality of Mongolia’s situation is summed up aptly by policy analysts, stating that the country’s Third Neighbor Policy may suffice for now, but it is no guarantee of longevity.

Even as it leans into the challenges of being a landlocked nation, the reality is that Mongolia’s sovereignty and future are still tied to the “Bear” to its north and the “Dragon” to its south.

A nation of warriors and nomads, Mongolia stands at a crossroads of history and the future, at the intersection of great powers and greater ambitions.

Its path forward is uncharted and arduous, yet its journey will undoubtedly be watched by the world with keen interest.

BY:

Deepesh Patel

Deepesh Patel is Editorial Director at Trade Finance Global (TFG) and host of Trade Finance Talks. Deepesh regularly chairs and speaks at international industry events with the WTO, BCR, Excred, TXF, The Economist and Reuters, as well as industry associations including ICC, FCI, ITFA and BAFT.

Carter Hoffman

Carter is a Research Associate at Trade Finance Global focusing on the impact of macroeconomic trends and emerging technologies on international trade. He holds international business and science degrees from the European Business School in Germany as well as Brock University and Queen's University in Canada where he served as the director of operations and finance for the student executive council and as an operations associate for the Queen's University Alternative Asset Fund. Carter’s work has been featured in publications and articles supported by the SME Finance Forum, managed by the International Finance Corporation, World Trade Organization, and International Chamber of Commerce

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene in Beijing on Tuesday, calling for strengthening connectivity and deepening friendship, mutual trust, and cooperation between China and Mongolia.

Noting the two countries are neighbors linked by mountains and rivers, Xi pointed out that the development of long-term good-neighborliness is a strategic choice made by both sides, which fully conforms to the fundamental interests of the two peoples. China, a trustworthy and reliable partner for Mongolia, attaches great importance to developing China-Mongolia relations, Xi said.

"China stands ready to work with Mongolia to deepen friendship, mutual trust, and cooperation under the guidance of building a China-Mongolia community with a shared future, take China-Mongolia comprehensive strategic partnership to new heights, and inject more stability and certainty into the region," he said.

Xi stressed that China and Mongolia should uphold mutual respect for national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, respect the development paths independently chosen by the two peoples, and firmly support each other on issues concerning each other's core interests and major concerns.

China is advancing national rejuvenation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization, while Mongolia is also making efforts in national reform and economic and social development. The two sides can forge ahead to synergize development strategies and work together to promote modernization, he said.

Xi said that China will continue to cooperate with Mongolia in the spirit of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit, and inclusiveness, strengthen connectivity between the two countries, advance the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, and jointly promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

China plays an active role in global environmental governance and stands ready to cooperate with Mongolia in preventing and controlling desertification, and will continue to support Mongolia's tree-planting campaign dubbed "Billion Trees," said Xi, adding that China is willing to improve interparty exchanges and promote experience exchanges in state governance with Mongolia.

He pointed out that China and Mongolia are both developing countries, sharing extensive common interests and similar positions on international and regional affairs. He said that China supports Mongolia in playing a positive role in regional and international affairs. He expressed hope that the two sides will uphold the vision of a community with a shared future for humanity, firmly safeguard multilateralism, and jointly promote a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness, justice, and win-win cooperation.

For his part, Oyun-Erdene said that Mongolia and China have a shared future and that the heart of the two is connected. He praised the successful hosting of the Winter Olympics amid the COVID-19 pandemic, saying it manifested solidarity and cooperation, boosting the confidence of the international community.

The prime minister appreciated China's remarkable development achievements and leadership in the world, adding that the Mongolian side will not forget the valuable assistance provided by China.

Mongolia is willing to work with China in making the Mongolia-China relations an example for relations between countries, Oyun-Erdene said. He pledged that Mongolia adheres to the one-China principle, supports China's position on Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, as well as the China-proposed Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative.

He expressed the willingness to work closely with China, continue to uphold mutual respect and support each other's choice of development path, jointly promote a high-quality BRI, and strengthen exchanges between political parties and young people. He said the two countries should improve the connectivity of cross-border railways and ports, and promote cooperation in areas such as economy, trade, investment, energy, green development, and anti-corruption.

Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, was also present at the meeting.

Mongolian National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MNCCI) has joined the One-Stop Export Digital System and presented to the enterprises of the how they fully completed the development of the program and put it into use. The system will be put into use from July 1.

By transferring the export certification of meat and meat products to a digital form, it will eliminate the problems faced by exporting enterprises, reduce time and money, documents and steps involved in issuing the export certificate, and government bureaucracy, and make it possible to make electronic decisions.

With the introduction of the system, more than 50 duplicate documents for 26 types of meat were previously prepared, but now there are 15, and the time spent is reduced to four to 13 days.

Currently, there are 18 companies that have the right to export meat and meat products to China, and there are many companies that have been trying to get export rights for the last four to five months.

Head of the MNCCI T.Duuren informed that a unit has been set up to support exports, to request a permit to export meat and meat products to China, and to assist in the preparation of documents. The unit will provide advice and support in matters such as applying for a meat export permit and preparing the necessary documents.

Currently, only meat and meat products’ export service is digitized on the One-Stop Export Digital System. However, in the future, Director of the Agricultural Exchange O.Narandelger said that all agricultural goods and raw materials, such as cashmere, wool, leather, and oilseeds, will be exported on the system.

The parties also exchanged views on issues related to the system and meat export. On this occasion, they expressed their desire to cooperate with the MNCCI for Meat Export Permits in the future. Representatives of more than 20 enterprises participated in the meeting to introduce the One-Stop Export Digital System to enterprises exporting meat and meat products.

As part of the Official Visit, Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene attended the opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum's (WEF) 14th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as "Summer Davos,” in Tianjin, China, and held meeting with Mr. Klaus Martin Schwab, Founder and President of the WEF.

The Founder and President of the WEF Mr. Klaus Martin Schwab, and Premier Li Qiang of the State Council of the People's Republic of China delivered the opening remarks, emphasizing the timely nature of the Forum. They all strongly agreed on the importance of solidarity, cooperation, and mutual understanding in addressing the challenges faced globally.

As the global economy undergoes a transformative phase, the Forum is being held under the theme of "Entrepreneurship: The Driving Force of the Global Economy."

Summer Davos highlights the significance of solidarity, cooperation, and mutual understanding in addressing globally faced challenges.

Participants from business, government, civil society, international organizations, and academia have gathered for this year’s Summer Davos to exchange views on a wide range of issues, including economic growth, emerging technologies, and sustainable development.

The Prime Minister of Mongolia L. Oyun-Erdene, the Prime Minister of Vietnam Phạm Minh Chính, and the Prime Minister of New Zealand Chris Hipkins attended the opening ceremony as honored guests.

At the outset of the meeting, the Prime Minister affirmed his confidence that the events organized by the WEF would contribute to ensuring post-pandemic economic recovery and encouraging the collective will and solidarity required for overcoming the challenges caused by geopolitical tensions.

Then, the Parties discussed the economic diversification of Mongolia, challenges faced by the landlocked countries, and other international cooperation issues.

Noting that the Mongolia Economic Forum, where Mongolian policy perspectives on economy and investment cooperation opportunities are discussed, will take place on July 9-10, in Ulaanbaatar, Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene invited Mr. Klaus Martin Schwab to participate.

Copper is poised to follow other commodities upended by recent price surges as the mining industry struggles to expand ahead of accelerating demand, warns the man behind some of the world’s biggest mines.

Demand for critical raw materials is set to jump as nations mandate clean energy and transport while clambering to develop their own supply chains. But a combination of factors suggests supply won’t keep pace, according to billionaire Robert Friedland. They include the fact that deposits are getting pricier and tricker to find and dig up, funding is scarce and societies have yet to grasp mining’s role in the shift from fossil fuels.

“We’re heading for a train wreck here,” the founder and executive co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “My fear is that when push finally comes to shove” copper can go up 10 times.

Friedland, who made his fortune from Canadian nickel and is behind massive copper finds in Mongolia and the Congo, has long championed the importance of the metal used in everything from wires to weaponry. Some analysts share his concern about a looming copper crunch, but consensus is for far more gradual price gains in the coming years.

Read More: The China-driven metals ‘super cycle’ is over, Jefferies says

Futures are down 10% from a January peak as an uneven post-pandemic recovery in China — the world’s biggest metals consumer — and inflation-fighting efforts by central banks restrains demand. Still, Friedland sees copper’s longer-term prospects supported by decarbonization, ongoing Chinese demand, the emergence of India and re-militarization in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On the supply side, output in top producer Chile has plateaued as ore quality deteriorates. The industry in general is having to dig deeper and contend with an uptick in resource nationalism and far more stringent environmental and social standards.

Investors have yet to grasp the significance of a global rush for the building blocks of clean energy, Friedland said. He points to very low physical inventories of copper coinciding with historically low relative valuations of mining companies. Large premiums paid in recent acquisitions indicate the mining industry understands where the market is headed, he said, although consolidation won’t solve the dilemma of how to boost production.

Friedland points to other commodities as examples of what may be in store for a tightening copper market. Chinese spot prices of molybdenum doubled from August to February amid supply disruptions and growing demand from the renewables and military sectors. One gauge of semi-processed lithium shot up 422% in 2021.

“When metals are required, the prices go crazy and nobody’s willing to sell them,” he said. “We’re heading into that sort of situation.”

The 72-year-old magnate is making his latest mining bet on the US. Ivanhoe Electric Inc., which has BlackRock Inc. and BHP Group as investors, is exploring in Arizona when the US is starting to realize the importance of domestic sources of raw materials and supply chains for greening the economy.

Read More: Billionaire Friedland says US must brand copper a critical metal

China is a dominant player in processing of nickel, copper, cobalt and other resources that are key to economic growth and clean-energy technologies. With initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the US is seeking to curtail global dependence on China as competition between the two nations increases. The European Union has already proposed classifying copper and nickel as critical raw materials in legislation designed to bolster supplies, alongside other metals key to the energy transition.

“Europe is in a panic about where their raw material is going to come from,” Friedland said. “The US is in a panic about where their raw material is going to come from. And so we’re going to see a lot of volatility and change in the way our supply chain is organized.”

(By James Attwood and Jacob Lorinc, with assistance from Thomas Biesheuvel, Yvonne Yue Li, Joe Deaux and Liezel Hill)

Mongolia is expected to enhance cooperation with China on technology, railway connections and green development as its prime minister kicked off a six-day visit to its neighbour on Monday.

Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, who is leading the high-level delegation, is expected to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang and will also attend the World Economic Forum’s 14th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, or Summer Davos, in northern port city of Tianjin between Tuesday and Friday.

“I am delighted to undertake my first official visit to China and take the opportunity to expand our two countries’ strategic partnership,” Oyun-Erdene said in an official statement.

Science, technology, innovation and green development, including delivering progress on projects such as the Erdeneburen hydropower plant, will be discussed, according to the statement.

This is basically a very consistent strategy to form relations with developing countries through trade and economic cooperation

Edwin Lai

“I can see why China is interested in building this kind of relationship in Mongolia. This land belt is very important for China’s relations with Central Asia … and China is doing it step by step with a long view,” said Edwin Lai, director of the Centre for Economic Development at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

“This is basically a very consistent strategy to form relations with developing countries through trade and economic cooperation.”

Both governments will work on the enhancement of connectivity through the Gashuunsukhait railway, as well as the integration of the Bichigt and Shivee Khuren railway networks.

China hopes to bolster transport infrastructure in Mongolia to control ‘all points of entry’

James Chin

A rail service between Mongolia’s Tavan Tolgoi coalfield and Gashuunsukhait on the Chinese border was opened in September, with the expectation that it could help coal exports to China reach 50 million tonnes a year.

Both Mongolian border crossings of Bichigt and Shivee Khuren can be connected to China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region, and are expected to facilitate the transport of bulk goods, such as coal and copper, with a more comprehensive rail structure.

“China hopes to bolster transport infrastructure in Mongolia to control ‘all points of entry’ while Russia is busy with Ukraine and the US doesn’t care about Mongolia,” said James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia.

“China’s goal is to expand railway projects from Mongolia westward all the way to Belarus.”

During their trip to China, the Mongolian delegation is also expected to explore the potential of extending China’s swap loan into a development loan.

China is using the loan and any resulting infrastructure as part of its “grand connecting plan”, said Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“Mongolia will gladly accept the loans because it relies otherwise on multilateral organisations such as the Asian Development Bank and World Bank,” he added, noting that Chinese loans have “fewer caveats” compared to the multilateral lenders.

Oyun-Erdene told the Post in March that Mongolia is seeking economic diversification and to be less dependent on a single market.

Mongolia and France, for example, have entered into a broader cooperation in tourism, direct commercial flights and commercial satellites, according to an official statement from the Mongolian government in May following a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron.

BY:

Kandy Wong returned to the Post in 2022 as a correspondent for the Political Economy desk, having earlier worked as a reporter on the Business desk. She focuses on China's trade relationships with the United States, the European Union and Australia, as well as the Belt & Road Initiative and currency issues. She graduated from New York University with a master's degree in journalism in 2013. An award-winning journalist, she has worked in Hong Kong, China and New York for the Hong Kong Economic Journal and the Financial Times, E&E News, Forbes, The Economist Intelligence Unit, Nikkei Asia and Coconuts Media.

Mongolia, sandwiched as it is between China and Russia, the world’s two most powerful authoritarian states, is unlucky. Its rich solar and wind potential may prove to be a curse, not a blessing, as Beijing might be tempted to infringe on Mongolian sovereignty.

Mongolia will, over time, become a much more sensitive issue in Sino-Russian relations.

China’s policy towards Mongolian renewables development will have significant implications for its relationship with Russia.

The numbers show why. Mongolia’s renewable resources are – potentially – transformative for Northeast Asian energy. The Asian Development Bank estimates renewables-rich Mongolia has the potential to generate 5,457 terawatt-hours of clean electricity via wind and solar electricity, or about 63 per cent of China’s total electricity generation in 2022. Mongolia also seems like a natural destination for Chinese solar exports, which are projected to exceed China’s domestic demand by more than 500 per cent by 2030.

If Mongolia exports even a tenth of its renewables potential, the implications for Chinese energy will be immense. Mongolian-generated electricity from renewables could displace or even replace Russian energy exports to China, including from the long-planned Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline. Beijing is already taking initial steps to develop renewables in climatologically-similar regions adjoining Mongolia.

China’s policy towards Mongolian renewables development will have significant implications for its relationship with Russia. Beijing’s economic footprint in Mongolia easily outpaces Moscow’s. China already accounts for the overwhelming majority of Mongolia’s exports, while bilateral trade is rising amid a new cross-border rail linkage.

It is difficult to overstate Beijing’s ability to dictate political and security terms in its landlocked neighbour. The power gap between China and Mongolia is vast. China’s population and GDP are, respectively, 408 and 1,075 times larger than Mongolia’s; Beijing’s claimed military expenditures are nearly 3,000 times greater than its neighbour’s.

To date, two factors have constrained Chinese interventions in Mongolia: a lack of material benefit, and Beijing’s fear of upsetting ties with Moscow. Conditions are changing.

Amid the improving techno-economics of solar, wind and batteries, China is building renewables in its portion of the Gobi Desert, including a US$12 billion solar project for 13 Gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity; it ultimately aims to build 450 GW in arid regions. Since the Gobi extends across both China and Mongolia, the constraint to renewables construction in Mongolia is ultimately political, not technical. If trial projects on its side of the Gobi prove successful, China may seek to deploy solar, wind, batteries, and transmission lines across the border.

While Beijing has trodden lightly in Mongolia in the post-Cold War period to placate Moscow, its posture may be shifting. In May 2021, Mongolia publicly arrested two of its intelligence officers, reportedly for spying for Russian security services. Chinese security services, with one eye on Beijing’s long-term energy interests, may have nudged their Mongolian counterparts to disrupt Russian networks. Mongolian and Chinese security services also cooperated in Ulaanbaatar’s arrest of a Mongolian-language anti-China activist who fled China’s province of Inner Mongolia.

Beijing will likely seek to absorb Mongolia’s renewables potential peacefully, without provoking a sanctions response from the West.

Transforming Mongolia into a renewables exporter won’t be easy: dramatic infrastructure overhauls to site enormous wind turbines and solar farms and connect them to Chinese demand centres will require years and massive injections of capital and labour.

The politics of Mongolian renewables development would also be fraught. Beijing will likely seek to absorb Mongolia’s renewables potential peacefully, without provoking a sanctions response from the West, but even a non-coercive buildout of renewables would see tens of thousands of Chinese workers enter a tiny country.

China could soon make major moves in Mongolia, despite these constraints.

Given its reluctance to upset political ties with Moscow or its economic relationships with Washington and Brussels, Beijing will likely move slowly in Mongolia, attempt to use non-coercive instruments whenever possible, and downplay any threats to Russia’s energy exports. Beijing’s posture could change, however, as the techno-economics of Mongolia’s wind and solar potential become more alluring. Indeed, the recent China–Mongolia rail network expansion could be repurposed for mass shipment of solar panels and may be an initial sign of Beijing’s interest in Mongolian renewables.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has utterly renounced the West, ensuring Russia has become China’s junior partner. This equilibrium is unstable, however, as Russia’s declining economic and military power slowly renders it less useful to China. Over the long term, Mongolian renewables could further reduce Russia’s value in Chinese energy security. Russia and China are close today, but Moscow may be about to learn a hard lesson.

BY: JOSEPH WEBSTER

This article represents the author’s own personal opinion.