The Government of Mongolia’s efforts to disrupt the outbreak of COVID-19 in Ulaanbaatar involve an aggressive regimen of contact tracing, medical surveillance, and compulsory testing and quarantine. Over the past week, numerous buildings and businesses have come under police control and all occupants have been ordered to quarantine in place. These localized lockdowns occur with little warning and, in the event that COVID-19-positive cases are identified, may last for a number of days.

As of February 2, 20 locations in Ulaanbaatar city including Songinokhairkhan (2 areas), Sukhbaatar (4 areas), Chingeltei (4 areas), and Bayazurkh (10 areas) have seen restrictions due to possible COVID-19 exposure. Building occupants and residents of these locations have been subjected to COVID-19 testing, with completely negative results leading to the lifting of localized quarantine restrictions and positive results leading to an extended quarantine period. The National Center for Communicable Diseases reports that even when test results are negative, residents are expected to be re-tested within 14 days and may be contacted by health workers and questioned about symptoms, recent movements, etc.

American citizens in Ulaanbaatar are encouraged to maintain adequate emergency provisions (food, water, medications, etc.) in the event they are required to quarantine in place. Please visit the Department of State’s website for additional recommendations on personal emergency preparedness, which are worth reviewing any time you travel overseas.

Feb. 3 (Xinhua) -- Mongolia will intensify the digitalization of public services to eliminate bureaucracy and improve the accessibility of public services, Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene said Wednesday.

Oyun-Erdene ordered relevant officials to pay special attention to the issue at a regular government meeting.

"We need to further intensify the digitalization of public services in order to eliminate the bureaucracy in the public service or difficulties faced by citizens in accessing public services," he said.

Currently, E-Mongolia electronic platform, a one-stop shop for various government services launched in 2020, allows citizens and legal entities to obtain over 180 types of government services through mobile application. The government aims to increase this number to 592 within this year.

In the future, Mongolia planned to establish a Ministry of E-development to reduce the number of staff for public services, improve e-education of citizens, develop digital economy, and increase information technology-based products and services, said a government statement. Enditem

Feb. 3 (Xinhua) -- Mongolia recorded 27 more COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, bringing its national tally to 1,859, the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) said Wednesday.

"A total of 15,897 tests for COVID-19 were conducted across Mongolia yesterday and 27 of them were positive," Amarjargal Ambaselmaa, head of the NCCD's surveillance department, said at a daily press conference.

The latest cases were locally transmitted and detected in the country's capital Ulan Bator, Ambaselmaa said, adding that the number of COVID-19 infections in the capital city has risen to 1,024.

Meanwhile, 21 more patients recovered from the disease, bringing the total recoveries to 1,392, she said.

The Asian country has so far recorded four COVID-19-related deaths. Enditem

New Delhi: Secretary P&NG held a virtual meeting with H.E. Mr. Batnairamdal Otgonshar, Vice Minister of Mining and Heavy Industry of Mongolia to review the Mongol Oil Refinery project.

This meeting was to follow up on the meeting of Shri Dharmendra Pradhan, Hon’ble Minister of PNG with H.E Mr. L. Oyun-Erdene, the then MP, Minister and Chief Cabinet Secretary of Mongolia, currently the PM of Mongolia, in January this year.

Secretary PNG conveyed deep appreciation on the new Law of Mongolia to support the Mongol refinery plant to expedite implementation of the Refinery Project. Secretary PNG reiterated India’s commitment to timely completion of the Mongol Refinery Project, the country’s first oil refinery to be built under a Line of Credit from GoI.

Mongolian Vice Minister conveyed the appreciation of the Mongol Government for GOI's support for the Oil refinery Project, being implemented under Project Monitoring of Engineers India Ltd (EIL), a PSU under MoPNG. He also briefed about the preparations for laying pipelines from crude sources to the refinery site. Both sides agreed to continually monitor the Project for its timely implementation.

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. In January 2021, the Bank of Mongolia (BoM) purchased 1.35 tons of precious metals, showing an increase of 750 kg compared to the same period of the previous year.

In January, BoM branches in Darkhan-Uul and Bayankhongor aimags bought 15.7 kg and 60.3 kg precious metals, respectively.

The average value of BoM’s purchase of 1 gram of gold was MNT 170,985.19 in January 2021.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Scientists gave Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine the green light on Tuesday saying it was almost 92% effective in fighting COVID-19 based on peer-reviewed late-stage trial results published in The Lancet international medical journal.

Experts said the Phase III trial results meant the world had another effective weapon to fight the deadly pandemic and justified to some extent Moscow’s decision to roll out the vaccine before final data had been released.

The results, collated by the Gamaleya Institute in Moscow that developed and tested the vaccine, were in line with efficacy data reported at earlier stages of the trial, which has been running in Moscow since September.

“The development of the Sputnik V vaccine has been criticised for unseemly haste, corner cutting, and an absence of transparency,” said Ian Jones, professor at the University of Reading, and Polly Roy, professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

“But the outcome reported here is clear and the scientific principle of vaccination is demonstrated,” the scientists, who were not involved in the study, said in a comment shared by The Lancet. “Another vaccine can now join the fight to reduce the incidence of COVID-19.”

The results were based on data from 19,866 volunteers, of whom a quarter received a placebo, the researchers, led by the Gamaleya Institute’s Denis Logunov, said in The Lancet.

Since the trial began in Moscow, there were 16 recorded cases of symptomatic COVID-19 among people who received the vaccine, and 62 among the placebo group, the scientists said.

This showed that a two-dose regimen of the vaccine - two shots based on two different viral vectors, administered 21 days apart - was 91.6% effective against symptomatic COVID-19.

‘RUSSIA WAS RIGHT’

The Sputnik V vaccine is the fourth worldwide to have Phase III results published in leading peer-reviewed medical journals following the shots developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca.

Pfizer’s shot had the highest efficacy rate at 95%, closely followed by Moderna’s vaccine and Sputnik V while AstraZeneca’s vaccine had an average efficacy of 70%.

Sputnik V has also now been approved for storage in normal fridges, as opposed to freezers, making transportation and distribution easier, Gamaleya scientists said on Tuesday.

Russia approved the vaccine in August, before the large-scale trial had begun, saying it was the first country to do so for a COVID-19 shot. It named it Sputnik V, in homage to the world’s first satellite, launched by the Soviet Union.

Small numbers of frontline health workers began receiving it soon after and a large-scale roll out started in December, though access was limited to those in specific professions, such as teachers, medical workers and journalists.

In January, the vaccine was offered to all Russians.

“Russia was right all along,” Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), which is responsible for marketing the vaccine abroad, told reporters on Tuesday.

He said the results supported Russia’s decision to begin administering Sputnik V to frontline workers while the trial was still underway, and suggested scepticism of such moves was politically motivated.

“The Lancet did very unbiased work despite some of the political pressures that may have been out there,” he said.

EFFECTIVE IN ELDERLY

The number of people vaccinated in Russia has remained low so far. Authorities have pointed to some early issues with scaling up production while polls have shown low demand among Russians for the vaccine.

Russia has already shared data from its Phase III trial with regulators in several countries and has begun the process of submitting it to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for approval in the European Union, Dmitriev said.

The data release comes as Europe scrambles to secure enough shots for its 450 million citizens due to production cuts by AstraZeneca and Pfizer. The U.S. roll-out, meanwhile, has been hampered by the need to store shots in ultra-cold freezers and uneven planning across states.

There were 2,144 volunteers over 60 in the Sputnik V trial and the shot was shown to be 91.8% effective when tested on this older group, with no serious side-effects reported that could be associated with the vaccine, The Lancet summary said.

RDIF’s Dimitriev also said the Gamaleya Institute was testing the vaccine against new variants of COVID-19 and the early signs were positive.

The vaccine was also found to be 100% effective against moderate or severe COVID-19, as there were no such cases among the group of 78 participants who were infected and symptomatic at 21 days after the first shot was administered.

Four deaths of participants occurred, but none was considered associated with vaccination, The Lancet said.

“The efficacy looks good, including in the over 60s,” said Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College London. “It’s good to have another addition to the global arsenal.”

ONE DOSE VERSION

The authors of the study noted that because COVID-19 cases were only detected when trial participants reported symptoms, further research was needed to understand Sputnik V’s efficacy on asymptomatic cases and transmission.

Sputnik V has been approved by 15 countries, including Argentina, Hungary and the United Arab Emirates and this will rise to 25 by the end of next week, the RDIF’s Dmitriev said.

The sovereign wealth fund also said vaccinations using Sputnik V will begin in a dozen countries including Bolivia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and Iran.

Hungary was the first member of the European Union to break ranks and unilaterally approve the vaccine last month. It is set to receive a first batch of 40,000 doses on Tuesday.

Germany has said it would use Sputnik V if it is approved by Europe’s drug regulator while France has said it could buy any efficient vaccine.

However, large shipments of the shot have only been sent so far to Argentina, which has received enough doses to vaccinate about 500,000 people. Production for export will primarily be done by RDIF’s manufacturing partners abroad, the fund has said.

On Tuesday, Dmitriev said production had started in India and South Korea, and would launch in China this month. Trial doses have also been produced by a manufacturer in Brazil.

Russia is conducting a small-scale clinical trial of a one-dose version of the vaccine, which developers expect to have an efficacy rate of 73% to 85%.

Additional reporting by Kate Kelland in London; Writing by Polina Ivanova; Editing by Mark Potter and David Clarke

Drugs giant Pfizer has said it expects $15bn (£11bn) of sales this year of the coronavirus vaccine it developed with German firm BioNTech.

The vaccine was one of the first to be authorised for use by countries including the UK and the US.

The vaccine sales represent a quarter of its expected revenue for this year.

Many countries around the world have been scrambling to vaccinate their populations in a bid to save lives and aid economic recovery.

Pfizer is trying to deliver two billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 as quickly as possible as countries rush to sign supply deals.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the vaccine brought in sales of $154m for Pfizer.

Out of the firms rushing to bring vaccines to market, analysts expect at least Pfizer and rival American biotech company Moderna to make billions of dollars this year.

There have been concerns that global wrangling over supplies could disrupt delivery schedules.

Over the weekend, the European Union backtracked on a decision to trigger an emergency provision in the Brexit deal that could have prevented shipments entering the UK.

The plans had been part of the EU's new export controls on vaccines to try combat delivery shortfalls.

On Tuesday, Japan said it would get all of the vaccine doses it had bought from Pfizer and BioNTech after concerns that the EU export controls could have delayed Japan's inoculation programme.

Japan is trailing most major economies in starting vaccinations, because of its reliance on overseas drugs firms and an insistence that vaccines go through domestic trials.

The country plans to start its campaign in mid-February with the Pfizer/BioNTech jab.

Pfizer and BioNTech have increased manufacturing capacity to more than two billion doses a year from 1.3 billion to meet demand, BioNTech chief executive Ugur Sahin said on Tuesday.

"Therefore we are confident that we will deliver the doses that we have promised to Japan," he said.

Feb. 2 (Xinhua) -- The total number of COVID-19 cases in Mongolia has increased to 1,832, the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) said Tuesday.

A total of 18 more locally transmitted cases were reported in the past 24 hours after 9,415 tests had been conducted across the country, the NCCD said in a statement.

The latest confirmed cases were detected in the country's capital Ulan Bator, the center said.

Meanwhile, 13 more patients have recovered from the disease, bringing the total number of recoveries in the country to 1,371, it added.

The Asian country has so far recorded four COVID-19-related deaths since confirming its first case of COVID-19 in March. Enditem

Feb. 2 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Monday extended congratulations to Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene on taking office as Mongolia's prime minister.

In his congratulatory message, Li said China and Mongolia are friendly neighbors connected by mountains and rivers and bilateral relations have maintained sound momentum for development.

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Li said, the two peoples have helped and supported each other and achieved positive results in their joint fight against the virus, writing a new chapter in their traditional friendship.

Under the new circumstances, China-Mongolia relations are facing new development opportunities, he said, adding that China is willing to work with Mongolia to lift the China-Mongolia comprehensive strategic partnership to a higher level. Enditem

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/London-01 February 2021: The appointment of a new prime minister, Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene, on 27 January from within the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), and the quick formation of a new cabinet signal that the sudden collapse of the previous administration will not compromise economic policy continuity or the near-term growth outlook, says Fitch Ratings.

The resignation of the previous prime minister following protests in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, over the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic highlights the fragile hold that recent administrations have had on power, with four prime ministers over the last five years. Nonetheless, Mongolia’s recurring bouts of political volatility are captured in the current ‘B’/Stable rating, which we affirmed in May 2020. Recent developments also appear unlikely to affect access to financing from multilateral and bilateral creditors, which has provided an important cushion during the pandemic.

The political changes could have a greater impact on sovereign creditworthiness if they result in a shift in the government’s policy approach towards strategic mining projects, such as the massive Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper-gold mine. In affirming Mongolia’s rating in May, we indicated political instability sufficient to significantly disrupt strategic mining projects or FDI as a factor that could contribute to negative rating action.

Media reports suggest the recently re-appointed Minister of Justice and Internal Affairs had previously pushed for amendments to the financing and development agreement for OT, in which the government is a minority shareholder. However, the new prime minister has yet to take a formal position on the matter. Relations between the government and the mine’s major investor, Rio Tinto (A/Stable), have long been fractious, and an approaching presidential election, due on 9 June, appears likely to provoke further calls to revisit the project’s commercial terms.

Our assumption remains that the government will proceed with caution, seeking to avoid significant disruptions to the mine’s development that would have severe implications for Mongolia’s near-term macroeconomic stability. We also believe Rio Tinto will proceed in a similar fashion, given the considerable investment it has already made in the country. The new prime minister previously headed the government’s Oyu Tolgoi working group, and Rio Tinto appointed a Mongolian as Copper Chief Executive in January.

The protests were fuelled by dissatisfaction with the government’s heavy-handed approach to social distancing measures, including border closures that have left many Mongolian nationals stranded overseas, as well as calls for greater economic relief. Mongolia’s case levels remain comparatively low, but control measures were tightened in late-2020 after the discovery of locally transmitted Covid-19 infections, which has further dampened economic activity.

An upturn in mineral exports has served to offset the negative impact on domestic demand, as China’s imports of Mongolian coal and copper have ramped up in line with its investment-driven recovery. Mongolian exports fell by 28.2% yoy in 1H20, amid temporary restrictions on shipments as part of virus containment efforts, but recovered sharply in 4Q20.

We expect strong export growth to continue through 1H21, owing largely to base effects, but sequential demand from China is likely to ease later in the year as the authorities there pare back fiscal stimulus measures. Combined with a recovery in domestic activity, we forecast this will push GDP growth in Mongolia to 6.1% in 2021, following an estimated contraction of 5.2% in 2020.

Mongolia remains vulnerable to external shocks in light of its narrow economic base, heavy reliance on external funding, and low foreign-reserve buffers. However, near-term external risks have declined after the issuance of a USD600 million sovereign bond in late-September. Foreign reserves stood at USD4.5 billion at end-December, against approximately USD2.4 billion in sovereign external debt maturities over 2022-2023.

Contact:

George Xu

Associate Director, Sovereigns

+852 2263 9629

Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited

19/F Man Yee Building

68 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong

Andrew Fennell

Senior Director, Sovereigns

+852 2263 9925

Oliver Schuh

Senior Director, Corporates

+44 20 3530 1263

Duncan Innes-Ker

Senior Director, Fitch Wire

+852 2263 9993

Media Relations: Alanis Ko, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9953, Email: alanis.ko@thefitchgroup.com

Wai Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@thefitchgroup.com

The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market commentary page. The original article can be accessed at www.fitchratings.com. All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings.

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