Copper jumped on Monday, rising by more than 2% overnight to a four-week high of $4.30 per pound ($9,470 per tonne) on the CME in Chicago, after China’s politburo signalled for the first time since 2008 it is abandoning its “prudent” monetary policy stance.

But optimism about the impact of a “moderately loose” policy and promises of “vigorously boosting consumption” faded in afternoon trade with March futures giving up some gains towards the end of regular trading.

The bellwether metal spiked at the end of September after similar positive noises about economic stimulus from Beijing, but remains down nearly 10% since then.

In a new note, London-based researcher Capital Economics warned that ”monetary easing in China is far less potent than it used to be [and] there is now limited appetite among households and large parts of the private sector to take on more debt, even at lower rates.”

Capital Economics says that with monetary policy effects likely to be underwhelming, Beijing’s fiscal policy would have to do the heavy lifting: “Our calculations suggest that the share of on-budget spending being devoted to investment is on course to hit its highest since 1987 this year.”

Rising fixed investment in China on this scale is an unalloyed good for metals markets and especially copper given its widespread use in industry, manufacturing and construction.

Even so, Capital Economics in a September research report argued that a correction in Chinese construction activity “will be as large as 50% decline from peak to trough” and that most of the correction still lies ahead:

“While the green transition and Al-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from China’s construction sector.

“Against this backdrop, and with supply proving resilient, we forecast copper and aluminum prices to fall in the coming years and be below consensus expectations during the 2020s.”

Capital Economics forecasts copper would lose touch with the $9,000 a tonne level next year, average only $8,000 by the end of 2026, and continue to drift lower through 2030.

Authorities of Ulaanbaatar held the “UB Opportunity” investment forum in Beijing, China to draw investments to major construction, energy, and transport projects to be implemented in the capital of Mongolia in the coming years.

Around 450 representatives from 204 entities engaged in the infrastructure, energy, and investment sectors took part in the forum, where the capital officials led by the Governor of the Capital City of Mongolia and Mayor of Ulaanbaatar Nyambaatar Khishgee presented the projects.

Mayor Nyambaatar thanked the representatives of business entities and organizations who attended the event and said, “The Government of Mongolia revised the Law on Public-Private Partnerships and the law came into force since the beginning of this year. In line with the law, Ulaanbaatar authority strives to stimulate public-private partnerships to expand the city's economy. We intend to cooperate with foreign and domestic enterprises in the energy and infrastructure sectors. Therefore, we would like to invite representatives of Chinese enterprises taking part in today's event to actively participate in the tenders to be announced within the framework of the key projects to be implemented in Ulaanbaatar City and strengthen cooperation between Mongolia and China.

The Mayor of Ulaanbaatar highlighted metro and highway construction projects. "In the coming years, one of the high-capacity multi-modal vehicles to be introduced into the capital's public transport is the metro. The metro route will be from Amgalan to Tolgoit with a length of 17.7 km, having 14 stations. The feasibility study for the project's management consulting services is 70 percent complete. The average speed of traffic is estimated to increase by 48 percent with the construction of the metro. In addition, public transport will be diversified to reduce road congestion in Ulaanbaatar City. For example, the preliminary feasibility study for a tram that can transport a large number of people in a short time will be completed by February next year. One vertical line will be built by the first quarter of next year. The route of the line will run 20.4 km from Zunjin Shopping Center to Sukhbaatar Square and will have 23 stations. The introduction of the tram will increase the average speed of traffic by 22 percent. In addition, the first expressway within the capital will be built. The tender for the four-lane Tuul Expressway, a 33-kilometer-long box girder structure, will be announced by December. Once the expressway is put into operation, the average speed of traffic will increase by 13.5 percent, and the throughput of vehicles passing through the Darkhan and Zamiin-Uud directions will improve."

The consulting service provider for a two-ring expressway to reduce traffic congestion within the city has been selected, and the feasibility study will be fully developed in 2025. The construction of the highway will increase the throughput of the main streets and intersections of the city center, and the average speed of traffic will increase by 27 percent. Meanwhile, the tender for the construction of a new bridge connecting the Tuul Expressway with the Nisekh road will be announced next year to begin the construction work, according to Mayor Nyambaatar.

At the end of the presentation, investors clarified the projects and programs of interest and exchanged ideas on cooperation, expressing their willingness to cooperate in the construction of trams, bridges, and highways, based on their experience, technology, and know-how.

In Mongolia, almost 90% of the country’s energy supply is consumed for heating purposes, with coal dominating as the primary energy source. While it keeps homes warm during the brutal winters, this reliance on coal has unleashed a public health and environmental crisis, contributing to severe greenhouse gas emissions and staggering air pollution levels.

The Cost of Breathing

Each year, 300 Mongolians die due to air pollution-related illnesses, including 240 children under 5. On the coldest winter days, Ulaanbaatar's PM2.5 levels soar to an alarming 687 micrograms per cubic meter, 27 times above the World Health Organization's recommended safe limit. The capital city is ranked 2nd globally on the list of most polluted cities, and the classification "Very Unhealthy" barely scratches the surface of the problem.

This pollution isn’t just choking the air. It’s eroding the health of Mongolia’s population. Respiratory diseases, cancer, mental health decline, and neurological damage are only part of the toll.

The economic translation? Indoor air pollution alone costs Mongolia ₮47 billion in annual health expenditures, while the broader environmental damage from pollution tallies up to ₮360 billion annually. Cumulatively, the economic loss equals a staggering ₮3.9 trillion or 7.6% of Mongolia’s GDP.

The Urban Factor

Nearly half the population lives in Ulaanbaatar, packed into 0.3% of Mongolia’s territory. Of these, 53% reside in ger districts, where raw coal burning generates 70%–80% of the city’s air pollution.

The government introduced charcoal briquettes in 2018 through Tavantolgoi Fuel LLC. While this initiative promised cleaner air, Mongolians are still breathing toxic smog six years later. The incremental improvements have been far from sufficient.

Hollow promises: Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene’s remark, “Nobody expected that we could reduce air pollution within a year by 50%. Our lungs testify to it,” feels painfully ironic. For many, toxic air continues to exacerbate stillbirths, pneumonia, asthma, and nerve damage, overshadowing any proclaimed progress.

A Wake-Up Call

Mongolia’s reliance on coal and its insufficient policy responses are a glaring reminder of the cost of short-term solutions. For the world, Ulaanbaatar serves as a cautionary tale of how unchecked urbanization and outdated energy policies can create a health and economic catastrophe. For Mongolians, it’s an urgent call to demand sustainable solutions that prioritize clean energy, health, and the environment. Ulaanbaatar’s toxic air serves as a grim reminder, “Every breath is a plea for change”.

The Prime Minister of Mongolia, L. Oyun-Erdene, has completed a week-long visit to the Middle East during which he discussed how to increase bilateral co-operation and promote economic development with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

Prime Minister of Mongolia L. Oyun-Erdene meets with Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa

During his visit, the Prime Minister met with:

Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, with whom he discussed expanding bilateral co-operation in the areas of renewable energy, minerals and environmental protection

Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, with the two leaders discussing plans to work together to promote economic development and combat desertification

President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who agreed with Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene on the importance of strengthening ties in areas ranging from the digital economy to tourism

The historic nature of the visit – which included the first ever official visit by a Prime Minister of Mongolia to Bahrain – and the seniority of those meeting with the Prime Minister, underscore Mongolia's increasing attractiveness to international partners as a destination for foreign direct investment. This follows Mongolia's economy growing by 7% in 2023.

During his time in the region, the Prime Minister also gave a keynote speech to the 16th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD COP 16), taking place in Riyadh, during which he outlined the impact of desertification on Mongolia and the need for international collaboration to tackle this issue. Mongolia will host the UNCCD COP 17 summit in 2026.

The Prime Minister also attended the One Water Summit taking place in Riyadh, where in a meeting with President Macron of France both leaders expressed their interest in expanding co-operation in the mining sector in an environmentally-sustainable way, and commencing work on major joint projects in the near future.

Commenting on his visit, the Prime Minister of Mongolia, L. Oyun-Erdene, said:

"Strengthening Mongolia's economic and diplomatic links with key Third Neighbours in the Middle East is vital to secure the investment that will deliver a better standard of living for our people and tackle the environmental challenges that threaten our nomadic heritage.

"In working more closely with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, we can unlock new opportunities in mining, renewable energy, tourism, agriculture and other sectors, partnering to deliver major projects to the benefit of our citizens.

"The success of my visit shows that countries in fast-growing parts of the world are increasingly looking on Mongolia as a partner for growth and economic development, and I look forward to our ties in the region going from strength-to-strength in the years ahead."

China’s trade restrictions on strategic minerals are starting to hit Western companies where it hurts.

Blaming Beijing’s curbs on antimony exports announced in August, German chemicals and consumer goods heavyweight Henkel told customers last month it had declared force majeure and suspended deliveries of four types of adhesives and lubricants widely used by automakers, according to a Nov. 8 letter to clients reviewed by Reuters.

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Henkel uses the silvery metal to make its Bonderite and Teroson-branded products, core parts of the company’s adhesive technologies division, which brought in 10.79 billion euros ($11.4 billion) in revenue last year.

“We have been notified by our suppliers that the importation of these raw materials has been delayed pending the Chinese government accepting license applications,” according to the letter, which was signed by two senior executives.

“As a result, Henkel is hereby declaring force majeure in connection with its deliveries of these products,” the German company also said, adding it was unable to predict the duration of the situation.

The letter from Henkel, which had not been reported previously, and conversations with more than two dozen traders, miners, processors, end-users, and industry experts in North America, Europe and China underscore the severe disruption caused by Beijing’s trade restrictions and highlight how Western players’ struggle to replace China-based supply chains.

Contacted by Reuters about the letter, Henkel said it was working to support its customers and find alternative supplies: “We are monitoring the global supply situation of antimony very closely and aim to restore solutions to fulfill our customers’ orders.”

The price of antimony, scarce in nature but essential for military equipment such as ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons, and night vision goggles, rallied nearly 230% this year to about $39,000 per metric ton in Rotterdam’s busy spot market, according to market intelligence provider Argus.

China is the world’s largest antimony producer and dominates the production of many strategic materials.

Last year, Beijing also limited exports of gallium and germanium – used for semiconductors, solar panels and weapons – as well as certain types of graphite – a key component in EV batteries.

Responding to a fresh US crackdown on China’s chip industry, Beijing this week further ratcheted up pressure, imposing an outright ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States, where Henkel makes Bonderite in Michigan.

Looking for alternatives

Beijing’s restrictions bring added urgency for Western players to cut their reliance on minerals from China.

Miner Perpetua Resources, for instance, is developing an antimony mine in Idaho with US government funding.

But new mines can take years to develop, leaving players like Henkel scrambling to find alternatives, which are often more costly.

“Please note that we are in close contact with our suppliers and using all commercially reasonable means to leverage our global supply chain to address this situation and support our customers,” Henkel also wrote in the letter.

Meanwhile, some Western miners and processors have started to build up capacity.

United States Antimony (USAC), the only North American processor of the metal, made plans to lift output at its Montana smelter, which was running at 50% of capacity after China announced curbs on antimony exports in August.

“Our decision to ramp up production was predominantly triggered by the more than tripling of worldwide Rotterdam antimony prices,” the company’s chairman, Gary Evans, told Reuters.

China’s restrictions “created significantly more demand for our finished products,” he added.

Mining at the Montana site was halted in 1983, when it was cheaper to source antimony from mines outside the United States, and environmental curbs now prevent extraction there, according to the company.

USAC, which does not rely on China, is in talks to receive the material from four other countries and one domestic supplier as early as December, Evans said, declining to name them for competitive reasons.

Orders at Ottawa-based Northern Graphite, which touts itself as North America’s only producer of natural flake graphite, jumped 50% in the aftermath of China’s graphite curbs announced in October 2023, CEO Hugues Jacquemin told Reuters.

“When the export controls came into effect in December last year, there was quite a surge in demand. We started ramping up capacity,” said Jacquemin, whose firm is developing projects in Namibia and Ontario to add to its mine in Lac des Iles, Quebec.

China accounts for over 70% of supply of both natural mined graphite and its synthetic variety.

Mark Jensen, CEO of ReElement Technologies, an arm of American Resources that specializes in recycling and refining rare earths, said China’s most recent export ban means the company has this week fielded at least 10 calls from US miners offering zinc ore, which can be a source of germanium during processing.

Those shipments had previously gone to China for processing given lower labour cost and different environmental standards, he said.

“We have been reaching out to US suppliers of these feedstock to sell these byproducts to us instead of sending it to China as we are now an alternative to China,” Jensen told Reuters.

Canadian miner Teck Resources, which produces germanium as a byproduct at its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska and is the only supplier of the metal in North America, told Reuters it was studying whether to boost output of the critical material there now that China has blocked exports to the United States.

Disrupted markets

China’s export squeeze has triggered a surge in prices for many strategic minerals.

Gallium sold outside of China was 30% to 40% more expensive than in the People’s Republic in the first half of 2024 from a year before, according to Toronto-based Neo Performance Materials, which produces gallium by recycling manufacturing scrap, said in August.

In China, the restrictions have forced some weaker players out of the market, traders and analysts told Reuters.

Two Chinese germanium traders told Reuters they had given up on exports as they were unable to secure licenses either because overseas clients were unwilling to provide specific details on end-users or because they are from the United States.

Even before Beijing’s latest curbs singling out the United States, no Chinese germanium or gallium was shipped there this year through October, Chinese customs data show. Over the same period in 2023, the US ranked as the fourth- and fifth-largest export market for the minerals.

For end-users, China’s restrictions underscore the importance of supply diversification.

“When you de-risk, you need to de-risk with different levers,” said Maxime Picat, chief purchasing officer at automaker Stellantis. “If you are a one-solution company, knowing that your battery suppliers are all Chinese or all Korean, then you are at risk.”

($1 = 0.9465 euros)

(By Amy Lv, Divya Rajagopal, Ernest Scheyder, Alessandro Parodi, Giulio Piovaccari and Sabine Siebold; Editing by Tony Munroe, Veronica Brown and Lisa Jucca)

The prevalence of flu and flu-like illnesses is surging in Ulan Bator, the capital of Mongolia, amid severe air pollution, according to the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) on Monday.

Nationwide, 277,000 people sought outpatient care in the past week, with 7.7 percent showing symptoms of influenza or influenza-like illness, the NCCD said in a statement.

The NCCD urged the public to take strict infection prevention measures, including wearing masks, to combat the high prevalence of flu and flu-like illnesses amid the worsening air pollution.

The 31st Meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council took place in Ta Kali, Malta, on December 5-6, with a delegation from Mongolia led by L.Munkhtushig, State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The two-day session saw participation from foreign ministers and senior officials from the OSCE’s 57 member states and 11 partners for cooperation. Key topics discussed included the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, regional security, human rights, and pressing economic and environmental challenges. Internal matters such as the organization’s budget and senior official appointments were also addressed.

During the discussions, State Secretary L.Munkhtushig reaffirmed Mongolia's unwavering support for the OSCE’s fundamental principles and initiatives. He emphasized the country’s commitment to collaborative efforts in areas such as democracy promotion, human rights protection, good governance, and combating corruption. Mongolia has been a partner since 2004 and became a full member in 2012, reinforcing its role within the organization.

The council concluded with significant institutional decisions aimed at bolstering the OSCE's capacity to respond effectively to complex security issues. Notably, consensus was reached on appointing a new OSCE Secretary General and Heads of Institutions, strengthening leadership to steer the organization during uncertain times. Malta's Chair-in-Office, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Tourism Ian Borg, highlighted the importance of these developments, stating: “Consensus is not a relic of the past but an achievable reality when collective interests take precedence over individual differences.”

Borg stressed that these outcomes were not mere formalities but vital for the OSCE’s function and effectiveness. “These decisions reaffirm our ability to address today’s security challenges,” he added, underscoring the OSCE’s enduring role in promoting peace, democracy, and human rights, and supporting conflict prevention and comprehensive security. Reflecting on the year’s theme, ‘Strengthening Resilience, Enhancing Security’, Borg noted that Malta had laid a strong foundation for the organization to meet future demands and be better prepared for challenges ahead.

The council’s closing also marked the transition of the OSCE Chairmanship to Finland for 2025, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act. Incoming Chairperson-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen highlighted that Finland’s leadership would focus on resilience, particularly amid Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. “We aim to enhance the OSCE’s operational capacity and empower people in neighboring areas to live in democratic states governed by the rule of law,” Valtonen said, reaffirming the importance of OSCE principles.

In his closing remarks, Borg called on member states to renew their commitment to the organization’s foundational principles. “Let us leave behind a legacy of peace, security, and prosperity for future generations. An investment in the OSCE is an investment in the spirit of possibility,” he concluded.

Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai, Prime Minister of Mongolia, visited the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, accompanied by Odonbaatar Shijeekhuu, Ambassador of Mongolia to the UAE, and his accompanying delegation.

Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai and the accompanying delegation toured the mosque's halls and outer corridors, learning about the mosque's cultural message of coexistence, tolerance, and openness to others, inspired by the values of the founding father.

Accompanied by Dr. Yousif Al Obaidli, Director-General of the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque Centre, they also learned about the significant role played by the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque Centre in promoting the true essence of Islamic culture, building bridges of understanding with various cultures around the world, and what distinguishes it from other places of worship.

He and his accompanying delegation were briefed on the history of the grand edifice, the mosque's aesthetics, and the exquisite Islamic architectural arts that are evident in every corner.

They also viewed the unique artifacts and the finest examples of Islamic civilization's artistic and architectural designs throughout the ages, which come together in the mosque's design to reflect the beauty of cultural harmony and unity in a single creative work.

At the end of the visit, the guest was presented with a copy of the book "Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque: Flow of Peace," the latest publication by the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque Centre. The book takes readers on a photographic journey to explore the architectural beauty of the mosque through a collection of award-winning photos from the "Spaces of Light" competition, highlighting the mosque's unique architectural art.

Mongolia-China cooperation in combating desertification, conserving biodiversity, and mitigating climate change is fruitful and flourishing, Mongolia's Minister of Environment and Climate Change Saldan Odontuya has said.

Joint environmental initiatives are a key area of bilateral eco-cooperation, said the minister in an interview with Xinhua, adding that they are in line with the shared goals outlined in the 2022 joint statement on advancing the comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era between Mongolia and China.

To further strengthen cooperation in desertification prevention, the two countries have jointly established the China-Mongolia Desertification Prevention and Control Cooperation Center. A research team from Peking University is preparing a comprehensive technical and economic feasibility study, and a joint working group is conducting research on the project, the minister added.

As part of this collaboration, China has supported Mongolia's "Plant a Billion Trees" plan, which aims to plant at least 1 billion trees by 2030 to combat desertification.

China International Development Cooperation Agency has reached an agreement with Mongolia's Ministry of Economy and Development and other relevant agencies to advance desertification prevention. Additionally, Mongolian officials and environmental experts have traveled to China to learn from the country's desertification control experience.

Odontuya highlighted the success of a joint project between Mongolia and China from 2018 to 2024, which aimed at protecting the critically endangered Gobi bear (Mazaalai) through technical assistance to improve research conditions and facilitate collaboration between Mongolian and Chinese scientists.

The Gobi Desert is home to rare and endangered species, such as the Gobi bear, Przewalski's horses (Takhi), argali wild sheep, snow leopards, and migratory birds. This area is the only habitat of the critically endangered wild Bactrian camel (Khavtgai).

Looking ahead, Mongolia seeks to expand cross-border conservation efforts, with an emphasis on wildlife migration routes protection, zoonotic diseases prevention, and capacity-building, Odontuya said.

Mongolia-China cross-border preservation, collaborative research, and cross-border corridors significantly contribute to protecting the species in their native habitats and conserving biodiversity, the minister noted.

In southern Mongolia's Gobi Desert, the government is developing infrastructure in an environmentally sustainable manner to protect wildlife like the white gazelle and Mongolian wild asses (Equus hemionus), the minister said.

"We have already begun approving and implementing standards for wildlife-friendly crossings and fences," Odontuya said. "Drawing on this experience, Mongolia is ready to collaborate with China to make the border fences between the two countries more wildlife-friendly."

Mongolia’s Corporate Income Tax (CIT) structure offers a compelling incentive for businesses and investors, balancing economic growth with a supportive tax environment. With a 10% rate on profits up to MNT 6 billion (USD 1.8 million) and 25% on higher earnings, Mongolia’s CIT encourages local business growth while remaining competitive for international corporations.

The government provides targeted tax breaks in key sectors like mining, renewable energy, and export industries, fueling opportunities in sustainable development and resource-rich ventures. A streamlined, digital tax-filing system makes compliance straightforward, enhancing transparency and efficiency.

For companies seeking new markets, Mongolia’s CIT framework offers a rare blend of low taxes, high growth potential, and strategic incentives—an attractive choice for ambitious businesses ready to expand in Asia.