Mongolia: Business environment to stabilse despite election www.jltspecialty.com

Despite the election of Democratic Party (DP) candidate Khaltmaa Battulga as president, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) will continue to drive the legislative agenda, given its parliamentary dominance. This will ensure adherence to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package and efforts to stabilise the investment environment.

Security Environment

On 9 July 2017 DP candidate Khaltmaa Battulga secured the presidency in a second round run-off election. Despite the electoral success of the DP in this election, the presidency is a largely ceremonial post and, facing a MPP dominated parliament, Battulga will struggle to materially influence policy during his tenure.

Security risks in Mongolia are generally low, and there is a limited threat of terrorism or civil unrest. Where protests do occur, they are likely to be in connection with political issues and are not likely to turn violent. Mongolia’s foreign policy aims to maintain sound relations with both China and Russia.

However, Battulga’s campaign promised to rebalance the trade relationship with China. China accounts for four-fifths of Mongolia’s yearly exports, and Battulga has raised concerns over China’s strategic interest in the country. Despite this, relations with China are unlikely to materially worsen. Any attempts by Battulga to limit Chinese investment in Mongolia will likely be blocked by parliament, although there will be concerted efforts by the DP and MPP to engage with other countries, including Japan and South Korea.

Trading Environment

Mongolia’s economy is likely to experience an uptick in real GDP growth in 2017. A drop in foreign investment in 2016, driven by suppressed global commodity prices and resource nationalist policies, contributed to weak annual growth of 1.1%.

In 2017, renewed investor interest in major natural resources projects, a result of business-friendly policies under the MPP, will drive growth of 2.2%.

Sovereign credit risks remain elevated in Mongolia. Foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 1.2 billion in May 2017, yet USD 1.5 billion in foreign debt is due in 2017 and 2018. However, a three-year USD 434 million Extended Fund Facility (EFF), approved by the IMF in May 2017, will partly ease short-term liquidity risks. The agreement forms part of a broader USD 5.5 billion financing package, provided by the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the governments of Japan, Korea and China. Designed to support the government’s Economic Recovery Plan, the package will support foreign exchange reserves and banking sector reform. The package is also expected to enable Mongolia to meet its upcoming debt obligations.

However, stringent fiscal targets associated with the facility will weigh on economic growth. The IMF programme mandates that the budget deficit must be reduced to 1.5% of GDP by 2022, from 17% in 2016. As a result, the government has cut nonessential spending, which could slow growth in the short term.

Investment Environment

Battulga’s election campaign focussed on resource nationalist policies. This included a proposal that all mining revenues should be deposited in Mongolian banks. However, foreign mining firms are unlikely to see a return to the hostile business environment seen under the previous DP government. In 2012, the DP government sought to limit foreign ownership by invoking the Strategic Entities Foreign Investments Law, to prevent Chinese firm Chalco from acquiring South Gobi Resource. The MPP has 85.5% of seats in parliament, and has pursued more investor-friendly policies since June 2016. Battulga’s election is unlikely to materially change this.

The MPP government announced plans to enhance the business environment for foreign investors in August 2016, creating a council to ensure legal certainty and resolve outstanding disputes. Attracting foreign investment is central to the government’s economic stabilisation plans, particularly in maintaining the IMF programme and meeting foreign debt repayments. In October 2016, the government approved an intergovernmental agreement with Canada, which will offer additional protections for Canadian investors. In an indication of revived confidence in Mongolia, the second phase of the USD 5.3 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine began in mid- 2016 and outstanding disputes over the development of Tavan Tolgoi coal mine are now likely to be resolved.

De Beers Botswana Targets Highest Diamond Production Since 2014 www.bloomberg.com

De Beers, the world’s biggest diamond producer by value, said its unit in Botswana is on track to produce the most since 2014 this year, exceeding its annual production forecast.

Sister city relations established between Ulaanbaatar and Bangkok www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ On 27 July 2017, H.E. Mr. Sundui Batbold, Governor of Ulaanbaatar and H.E. Pol. Gen. Aswin Kwanmuang, Governor of Bangkok signed the Agreement on Establishment of Sister City Relations between the City of Ulaanbaatar and Bangkok Metropolitan Administration.

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Amazon is offering a service that converts Japanese text into audio speech.

Mongolia coal export trade up fourfold in H1 on North Korea ban www.reuters.com

ULAANBAATAR (Reuters) - Mongolia's coal export trade grew more than fourfold in the first half of 2017, with the country benefiting from China's ban on imports of the commodity from North Korea and curbs on deliveries into smaller ports.

ECB urges fines on eurozone members for failure to comply with reform rules www.rt.com

The European Central Bank (ECB) has called for large fines on EU countries that fail to adopt the bloc’s economic reform recommendations.

Oyu Tolgoi achieves 88.7 percent recycling level, Q2 report says www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ Oyu Tolgoi released the latest edition of its scorecard updating its performance for the second quarter of 2017 on July 28. Oyu Tolgoi continues to work with safety as its core priority. The All Injury Frequency Rate stood at 0.27 per 200,000 hours worked in the second quarter, as the operations and underground teams maintain significant focus in building a strong safety culture across the business. In Q2’17, 141,800 hours of safety training was delivered to over 11,000 employees and contractors, reports ot.mn.

Armando Torres, CEO of Oyu Tolgoi, said, “The second quarter marked an important milestone for the business the three millionth tonne of concentrate shipped, less than four years after the first shipment was delivered to our customers. This achievement is built on the exemplary efforts and support of our workforce, partners, and shareholders. As we look to the second half of the year, we remain focused on delivering on our business targets for 2017 and maintaining the momentum of the underground project.
“Safety remains our first and foremost priority on this journey – and we continue to work hard to build a lasting safety culture within our business, and beyond.”
Oyu Tolgoi continued to deliver on its commitment to environmental protection and stewardship, particularly in the area of water use with 0.373 cubic metres of water per tonne of ore processed during the reporting quarter, significantly better than the global average of 1.2 cubic metres of water per tonne, and achieved a recycling rate of 88.7 per cent.
Oyu Tolgoi also continued to support sustainable development programmes in Umnugobi with an investment of US$3.1mn over the quarter. The Oyu Tolgoi-funded Bulk Water treatment plant in Khanbogd started operations, and new programmes aimed at improving pasture management and women employment were started in the quarter.
In terms of production, material mined increased 3.5 per cent in Q2’17 vs Q1’17, while grades for the quarter were flat compared to Q1’17. Copper and gold production for Q2’17 was essentially in-line with Q1’17 production despite the planned maintenance shutdown. Sales of copper in Q2’17 decreased 5.6 per cent over Q1’17 due to lower concentrate volumes during the quarter. Gold sales in Q2’17 decreased 28.1 per cent over Q1’17 due to sales in Q1’17 including some higher-grade concentrate from Q4’16.
Turquoise Hill expects Oyu Tolgoi to produce 130,000 to 160,000 tonnes of copper and 100,000 to 140,000 ounces of gold in concentrates for 2017.

Shares Seesawing on Volume: Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (0276.HK) www.evergreencaller.com

Shares of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (0276.HK) is moving on volatility today 2.17% or 0.005 from the open. The HKSE listed company saw a recent bid of 0.235 on 1420000 volume.

Investors may be wondering how to tackle the markets at current levels. Many investors may feel like they have missed out on the markets getting to where they are today. It may be a case of missed trades or being too cautious, but a stellar forward thinking strategy may be just what is needed to get back on track. Studying various sectors may help provide some insight on where to go from here. Investors may become very familiar and comfortable with a certain sector, and they may be completely missing out on opportunities from other fast growing sectors. Investors may also need to take a long-term approach which may include creating a diversified portfolio that takes many different factors into consideration. With the enormous amount of uncertainty that follows the global investing world on a daily basis, it may be helpful for investors to be able to keep their emotions in check. Studying the hard data may prove to be very useful when trying to separate truth from fiction in the equity markets.

Taking a deeper look into the technical levels of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (0276.HK), we can see that the Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R currently sits at -25.00. The Williams %R oscillates in a range from 0 to -100. A reading between 0 and -20 would point to an overbought situation. A reading from -80 to -100 would signal an oversold situation. The Williams %R was developed by Larry Williams. This is a momentum indicator that is the inverse of the Fast Stochastic Oscillator.

Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (0276.HK) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -2.92. Active investors may choose to use this technical indicator as a stock evaluation tool. Used as a coincident indicator, the CCI reading above +100 would reflect strong price action which may signal an uptrend. On the flip side, a reading below -100 may signal a downtrend reflecting weak price action. Using the CCI as a leading indicator, technical analysts may use a +100 reading as an overbought signal and a -100 reading as an oversold indicator, suggesting a trend reversal.

The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a widely used technical momentum indicator that compares price movement over time. The RSI was created by J. Welles Wilder who was striving to measure whether or not a stock was overbought or oversold. The RSI may be useful for spotting abnormal price activity and volatility. The RSI oscillates on a scale from 0 to 100. The normal reading of a stock will fall in the range of 30 to 70. A reading over 70 would indicate that the stock is overbought, and possibly overvalued. A reading under 30 may indicate that the stock is oversold, and possibly undervalued. After a recent check, Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd’s 14-day RSI is currently at 52.45, the 7-day stands at 57.25, and the 3-day is sitting at 66.35.

Currently, the 14-day ADX for Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (0276.HK) is sitting at 21.84. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would support a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would identify a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would lead to an extremely strong trend. ADX is used to gauge trend strength but not trend direction. Traders often add the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to identify the direction of a trend.

Danshig Naadam to attract over 3000 tourists www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ The 2017 Danshig Naadam – Khuree Tsam festival will be watched by about 3000-4000 tourists, said the organizers.

Delegates led by mayor S.Batbold visiting Bangkok www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/ S.Batbold, Mayor of Ulaanbaatar City, along with other officials, has visited Bangkok, Thailand. The delegates led by the Mayor were welcomed by Ambassador of Mongolia to the Kingdom of Thailand T.Tugsbilguun.