The economic ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the West's imposition of heavy sanctions on Moscow in response to it are starting to unsettle Mongolia.

Four days after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the governor of the Bank of Mongolia (BoM), Lhagvasuren Byadran, told reporters that the national lender boasted $4.3bn in reserves as of the start of 2022, and that the reserves were more than enough to cover seven to eight months. Yet there have been instances of bank customers blocked from making foreign payments of more than Mongolian tughrik (MNT) 4mn (less than $1,700) and prevented from obtaining more than $1,000 per day.

Customers were informed by their banks that the central bank had set limits on foreign exchange transactions. However, on March 21, BoM provided a statement to Ikon, a local news agency, in which it said that there was no limit placed on FX. It stated: "The Bank of Mongolia has not imposed any limits on foreign exchange transactions. It is misleading for the managers of these banks to convince their clients that the Bank of Mongolia has placed such limits. The Bank of Mongolia will send a warning to the banks that have decided to restrict foreign exchange."

BoM suggested that individuals banks may have set their own limits on the amount of dollars that can be withdrawn, taking account of their internal reserves.

Whatever the facts here, there is no doubt that the Ukraine crisis is putting Mongolia's economy to the test. Inflation has hovered around 13% since January and in February it topped 14%. The central bank said in early January that inflation would move down as soon as exports picked up again, but China’s strict “zero-covid” policy continues to make it difficult for Mongolia to ship minerals and coking coal to its giant neighbour, putting a big dent in the country's economic performance.

Since the start of the Ukraine war, the MNT has dramatically depreciated from 2,842 to the USD to 2,910. Given global price hikes, the central bank is now examining the next step it could take to ensure that the national currency does not depreciate further. It remains adamant that it does not want to deploy reserves to strengthen the tughrik. But the situation is worsening. Some FX outlets have stopped selling dollars or are selling for at least MNT 3,100.

There are also tales of people swapping huge sums of rubles for USD.

At a press conference called to address public anxiety over inflationary pressures, Lhagvasuren said: “Uncertainty has arisen in the economy. In 2021, the balance of payments showed a deficit of $220mn. This year we started out in the first month with a $500mn deficit. This was due to a growth of imports, post-Covid economic growth. And with this war it is certain that the balance of payments will be in deficit by the end of the year.”

After the conflict broke out, and Russia's ruble sank in the face of the sanctions response, some Mongolian economists called for the exchange of rubles to be stopped, but BoM did not issue an ordinance. The central bank, though, has made it clear that the exchange of rubles in the country has increased since the invasion. It said: "If we look at the average amount of ruble transactions from 2019 to the present, a maximum of $30mn in rubles has been used for payments and exchanges in the country [on a monthly basis]. A total of $92mn worth of ruble transactions were made from the beginning of this year till March 18. Also within this time, the amount of rubles purchased amounted to $4.2mn. This shows that the amount of rubles bought by banks on the domestic market is much lower than the amount sold."

To preserve the reserves, BoM is working on limitations—one restriction could see limits placed on the importing of luxury goods including cars—and will monitor certain transactions. “Only by supporting exports will we be able to have certain foreign exchange reserves. Steps need to be taken to bring mining products to the market. At today's auction, banks applied for $162mn, but we submitted $50mn,” the central bank noted on March 22.

Banks, the central bank said, used to send in information on FX payments once a month. “However,” Lhagvasuren added, “we now receive daily information on any transactions worth more than $50,000, to exercise control over the purposes for which [hard] currency is transacted to abroad. A contingency plan is required if the MNT continues to depreciate."

Lhagvasuren also suggested that for Mongolia to maintain steady economic progress, the government must postpone some of its objectives. “Some of the state budget investment needs to be postponed this year,” he said. “There is a need to reduce costs that can't be borne, [such as with] construction work that has not yet been commissioned.”

BY Anand Tumurtogoo in Ulaanbaatar

March 23 (Xinhua) -- From 2018 to the end of February 2022, a total of 364,000 tonnes of fruits and vegetables were exported from China to Mongolia via the border port of Erenhot in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, according to the Erenhot Customs.

The total trade value of fruit and vegetable exports to Mongolia through the port reached 423 million yuan (about 66.4 million U.S. dollars).

In 2018, a green channel for agricultural products was launched, which has since been putting more than 30 kinds of fruit and vegetables, including apples, oranges, lemons, onions, peppers and cucumbers, on the tables of Mongolian people.

Thanks to this green channel, the average customs clearance time for fruit and vegetable exports has been reduced to 30 minutes.

Erenhot, the largest land port on the China-Mongolia border, supplies about 80 percent of Mongolia's fruit and vegetables.

Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia S.Amarsaikhan received ADB Country Director for Mongolia Pavit Ramachandran, ADB Senior Urban Development Specialist A.Heckmann and Ger areas development project coordinator D.Avirmed.

Over the past 28 years, the Asian Development Bank has issued a total of USD 3.9 billion in funding to Mongolia by providing substantial support in wide range of areas including education, health, society, economy, infrastructure, urban planning, and green development aside from the assistance during COVID-19 pandemic.

Commending the timely implementation of appropriate measures in the fight against the pandemic taken by Government of Mongolia and National Emergency Commission Agency, which made it possible to move back to normal life, recovering its economy, ADB Country Director for Mongolia Pavit Ramachandran expressed commitment to expand the cooperation with Mongolia and promote the ‘New Revival Policy’ being implemented by the Government.

ADB expressed an interest to cooperate in projects and programs including Satellite city to be established in Khushig Valley, public transport modernization, as well as ‘Green growth recovery’ and 'Urban and rural revival' to be implemented in the framework of the ‘New Revival Policy’.

“With the establishment of the Bayankhoshuu and Selbe Sub-Centers, some works reflected in the affordable housing program are planned to be realized and its construction work will be launched this spring. I am pleased to inform that Bayankhoshuu and Selbe Sub-Centers project being implemented within the framework of the ‘Ulaanbaatar Urban Services and Ger Areas Development Investment Program’ (GADIP) has become international benchmark. Further, the feasibility study for the ‘Rural development’ project to be implemented in 8-9 aimags was approved and its financing was resolved. Within the framework of the project, small and medium-sized enterprises, including processing plants, will be promoted, creating more jobs in the local areas. Therefore, it should be decided by the Government in which aimags the project will be implemented,” said ADB Senior Urban development Specialist A.Heckmann.

Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia S.Amarsaikhan noted “We became able to move into ‘Yellow’ level thanks to the five-phase strategy measures implemented by the Government and the support of people during Covid-19 pandemic. I would like to express my appreciation to the ADB for making valuable contribution in overcoming the Covid-19. We fully agree with suggestions put forth by the ADB on the successful implementation of projects and programs of the ‘New Revival Policy’. In particular, the development of satellite cities is a priority to reduce the centralization and traffic congestion of Ulaanbaatar city. Therefore, we are willing to co-implement the projects and programs towards the establishment of infrastructure, affordable housing and free economic zone.”

In February, The Bank of Mongolia (BoM) purchased 795.3 kg, raising the BoM’s total precious metal purchase of 2022 to 2.4 tons. The figure shows an increase of 464.6 kg as compared with the same period of the previous year. The average price of BoM’s purchase of 1 gram of gold is MNT 180,905 this month.

In China, discounts widened to between $4 and $6 an ounce over global benchmark spot rates from $2 to $4 the previous week.

In Hong Kong, gold was sold at anywhere between on par with the benchmark rates to $4 discounts, versus $3 discounts last week.

Indian gold prices jumped to 55,558 rupees per 10 grams earlier this month, not far from the all-time high of 56,191 rupees hit in August 2020.

Regional physical demand is patchy, given the COVID-19 situation in China and the massive discounts in India and there is no question that the physical demand in Europe and Asia that propped the market up has weakened, said independent analyst Ross Norman.

But demand from institutional buyers continues to be robust, Norman said. Gold in Singapore, meanwhile, continued to trade at premiums of about $1-1.80 an ounce. While businesses and retail investors have started purchasing gold as prices pull back from recent highs, “we’ve seen a lot more selling” since prices are still comparatively elevated,” said Brian Lan, managing director at dealer GoldSilver Central.

With a unique value proposition to tourists, Mongolia’s tourism sector has substantial growth potential, but faces key constraints in air transport and sector coordination, according to the World Bank’s new study on Mongolia’s tourism sector. The study, entitled Fostering Inclusive Tourism Development in the Aftermath of COVID-19, analyzes the performance of the Mongolian tourism sector, its regulatory environment, and policy options based on a data-driven economic modeling approach.

“Mongolia’s tourism sector has been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and its full potential is yet to unfold. The country has an abundance of strong niche products for leisure tourism linked to its diverse nature, nomadic lifestyle, culture, and historical legacy,” – said Andrei Mikhnev, World Bank Country Manager for Mongolia. “This new study aims to help the government identify policy priorities for a more inclusive and sustainable tourism sector.”

Tourism is an important contributor to Mongolia’s economy and accounted for 7.2% of GDP, 6.8% of total exports, and 7.6% of total employment in 2019, which was the best year ever, before collapsing in 2020 due to COVID-19. Relative to comparators in Eurasia as well as to countries outside of Eurasia with similar geographic features and/or tourism offerings, Mongolia has been losing market share over the last decade. However, leisure tourism has continued to expand while business travel has declined. Leisure tourists spent less time in Mongolia comparing with similar tourist markets.

The government aims to develop sustainable and inclusive tourism and make Mongolia “the international destination for nomadic culture and tourism”. This may require prioritizing segments and markets with highest value potential before increasing the number of foreign tourist arrivals, the report points out.

The lack of resources allocated for infrastructure development and a protectionist aviation policy impede sector development, according to the enterprise survey of tourism companies conducted in the beginning of 2021. Furthermore, the tourism industry representatives acknowledged policy and sector coordination issues to be among the top issues facing the sector, including the lack of centralized marketing support, national tourism policy implementation, and coordination.

Mongolia’s tourism sector has suffered a loss of MNT 1.5 trillion due to COVID-19 with around 1,600 companies and 88,000 jobs put in risk.

March 22 (Xinhua) -- Mongolia's foreign-exchange reserves fell to 4.3 billion U.S. dollars as of Tuesday, down 2 million dollars from the beginning of this year, according to the country's central bank.

The decrease shows that imports have exceeded exports, Byadran Lkhagvasuren, governor of the Bank of Mongolia, said at a press conference.

Mongolia's imports have increased by more than 40 percent since the start of this year, Lkhagvasuren said, adding that COVID-19 restrictions have prevented the country from exporting much of its coal, its main export product, despite the high prices of raw materials in the world market.

Therefore, the balance of payments was in deficit and foreign exchange reserves declined.

According to Lkhagvasuren, the central bank could propose restricting imports of luxury goods.

Mongolia has spent 1.37 billion U.S. dollars on imports since the beginning of this year, with almost half on luxury cars, according to the bank.

In the first 2 months of 2022, 3943.2 thousand tons of freight were carried by railway transport, showing a decrease of 1217.8 (23.6 percent) thousand tons compared to the same period of previous year. This decrease was mainly due to 894.3 (50.2 percent) thousand tons decrease in export freight and 150.8 (7.1 percent) thousand tons decrease in domestic freight.

In February 2022, 1964.1 thousand tons of freight were carried by railway transport and decreased by 15.1 (0.8 percent) thousand tons compared to the previous month. This decrease was mainly due to 222.8 (19.1 percent) thousand tons in decrease coal and 24.8 (79.1 percent) thousand tons decrease in oil and petroleum products. In addition, 111.6 thousand passengers (in repeated counting) carried by railway transport and increased by 0.8 (0.8 percent) thousand tons compared to the previous month.

In the first 2 months of 2022, the revenue from railway transport reached MNT 91.1 billion, decreased by MNT 30.7 (25.2 percent) billion compared to the same period of previous year. This decrease was mainly due to decreases in the transportation of flours and spar concentrates and molybdenum concentrates and Iron ore.

In February 2022, the revenue from rail transport reached MNT 47.2 billion, increased by MNT 3.4 (7.6 percent) billion compared to the previous month.

Source: National Statistics Office

The latest sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have sent global prices for fertilizer soaring to an all-time high. The two countries are major exporters of potash, critical for the global agriculture industry, which is already reeling from pandemic-related disruptions.

Last week, fertilizer prices surged nearly 10% versus the previous week, according to Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index, the highest price point ever recorded. The index shows current prices are 40% higher than a month ago, before Russia’s military operation in Ukraine began.

According to CRU, a UK-based commodity consultancy, prices for raw materials that make up the crop nutrient commodity market, such as ammonia, nitrogen, potash, urea, phosphates, sulphates and nitrates, saw a 30% surge since the beginning of the year, topping the levels reached during the 2008 financial crisis.

Russia and Belarus are major exporters of several critical fertilizing compounds, including urea and potash.

Nola urea is trading at a 34-year high of $880 per US ton compared to $182 recorded in 2020. Prices are up 60% since the West imposed sanctions against the two countries.

Spiking prices for fertilizers have also been exacerbated by higher costs for natural gas, a vital feedstock in producing nitrogen-based fertilizer. Energy prices have been soaring amid EU plans to cut reliance on Russian oil and gas supplies and bans imposed by the US and a couple of other countries.

The situation is also being aggravated by China’s ban on fertilizer exports, primarily nitrogen and phosphate. The measure, which expires in June, was implemented to limit the rise in domestic food prices.

Moreover, a labor dispute at Canadian Pacific Railways is expected to worsen shortages, putting additional pressure on the global logistic chains. Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, said it could weather a freight shutdown lasting a few days but a longer shutdown would force it to consider slowing potash production.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization previously warned that “acute food insecurity” was plaguing dozens of countries spanning Latin America, central Africa, the Middle East, and central Asia due to conflict and erratic environmental conditions.

“Ukraine has only compounded a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe,” David M. Beasley, executive director of the UN World Food Program, told The New York Times earlier this week, adding that the current levels of food insecurity have not been seen since World War II.

Lion Copper and Gold (TSXV: LEO) announced Monday it has entered into an Option to Earn-in Agreement with Rio Tinto America to advance studies and exploration at Lion CG’s copper assets in Mason Valley, Nevada.

Under the agreement, Rio Tinto has the option to earn a 65% interest in the assets, comprising 34,494 acres of land, including the historic Yerington mine, greenfield MacArthur Project, Wassuk property, the Bear deposit, associated water rights and approximately 20 exploration targets dispersed across the company’s land package.

At the site, Rio Tinto will evaluate the potential commercial deployment of its Nuton technologies, which offer copper heap leaching technologies developed to deliver increased copper recovery from mined ore and access new sources of copper such as low-grade sulphide resources and reprocessing of stockpiles and mineralised waste.

The technologies have the potential to deliver leading environmental performance through more efficient water usage, lower carbon emissions, and the ability to reclaim mine sites by reprocessing waste, the company said.

“The agreement offers the potential to both increase the scope and scale of our development and accelerate the path to first production,” Lion CG CEO, Travis Naugle said in a media statement.

“As stewards of significant copper resources and water rights in the State of Nevada, we recognize our role in a sustainable and circular economy,” he said. “Should Rio Tinto exercise its earn-in option, we are confident that it will bring its own level of quality to progress the development of the Mining Assets towards becoming a strategic domestic copper producer with the highest ESG standards and performance.”

We look forward to continuing to advance the MacArthur Project and our other Mason Valley assets through constructive relationships with Rio Tinto, the local community, Native American Tribes, the State of Nevada and other valued stakeholders.”

In addition to advancing the MacArthur Copper Project on the basis of the recently-announced mineral resource estimate, LCG also intends to focus on resource growth by evaluating an integrated approach to expansion across the company’s asset base and land package.

Higher copper recoveries

The Nuton technology, it said, offers the potential to economically unlock low-grade sulphide resources, copper bearing waste and tailings, and achieve higher copper recoveries on oxide and transitional material, allowing for a significantly increased copper production outcome with a very low corresponding carbon footprint.

“This Agreement will allow us to explore the potential commercial deployment of our Nutoncopper leaching technologies in a historical mining district with a large copper endowment,” Rio Tinto copper chief executive Bold Baatar said. “These technologies not only offer Rio Tinto the potential to unlock additional copper, but to also deliver low carbon production with significant environmental benefits through reprocessing old stockpiles and tailings and reducing waste from new and ongoing operations.”

Rio Tinto will pay up to $4 million for an exclusive earn-in option and agreed-upon Mason Valley study and evaluation works to be completed by Lion CG no later than December 31, 2022.

LCG’s stock was up 18.75% on the news in mid-afternoon trading on the CVE. The company has a C$26.5 million market capitalization.

Today marks the 41st anniversary of the first space flight by a Mongolian. On this day in 1981, Hero of Mongolian People’s Republic, Hero of USSR Jugderdemidiin Gurragchaa along with twice Hero of USSR, Hero of Mongolian People’s Republic, Soviet cosmonaut V.A.Dzhanibekov flew into space on the Soyuz 39 spacecraft, landing back on Earth at 7.42 pm on March 30.

With this event, Mongolia became the 10th country in the world to send off a cosmonaut into space, and Mongolian cosmonaut J.Gurragchaa became the 2nd person in Asia, and the 101st person in the world to fly into space.

While in orbit, 25 types of 36 experiments and research works were carried out in the fields of medical care and biology, physics and technology, and remote sensing, which laid out the foundations for the development of space science in Mongolia.

Incidentally, a MONTSAME team of seven comprised of columnists, reporters, and photographers covered the events related the flights between 1978 and 1981 and took over 60 percent of all photographs of the space flights in Mongolia, especially those in the archives.