Activity in the Chinese services sector is recovering from the pandemic faster than manufacturing, and rose at the fastest rate in five months during April, according to the results of a Caixin/Markit survey.

The Caixin China services PMI, officially known as the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index, stood at 56.3 in April, against a 54.3 reading in the previous month. Any reading above 50 reflects growth, while a number below that threshold points to a contraction. According to Caixin, the services sector has been constantly growing for 12 straight months.

The results of the private survey, which reflects sentiment among smaller, private firms, are better than the official Chinese non-manufacturing PMI, released last week. The data, published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), signaled that expansion in both services and manufacturing lost some steam in April.

The Caixin survey showed last week that manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in April from 50.6 in March. According to new data, the Caixin China General Composite PMI, which covers activity in both manufacturing and services, was up to 54.7 from 53.1 in March. The growth was driven by strong overseas demand and improved employment, according to Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.

However, the rapid recovery of the sector could be still affected by rising input costs. According to the poll, costs for service providers have been increasing for 10 months in a row and jumped at a faster rate in April compared to a month earlier, due to rising raw material prices and demand-driven higher labor costs. Those extra costs were passed on to the consumer, as the companies had to raise prices to offset the inflation.

“In the coming months, rising raw material prices and imported inflation are expected to limit policy choices and become a major obstacle to the sustained economic recovery,” Wang warned.

Mongolia registered 639 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the national tally to 45,459, the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) said Monday.

Meanwhile, eight more fatalities were reported, raising the death toll to 182, the center said, adding that 1,287 more recoveries were reported, bringing the nationwide count to 32,660.

The Asian country launched a COVID-19 vaccination campaign in late February, with the aim of vaccinating at least 60 percent of its population of 3.3 million.

More than 1,590,600 people have so far received their first dose and over 622,740 have got both jabs, according to authorities.

During his working trip in Umnugobi aimag last weekend, Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene informed that the government issued a decision to establish ‘Tavantolgoi coal concentrator’. To be commissioned in 2023, the plant will have a capacity of concentrating 30 million tons of coal annually and export the value-added product. It is estimated that a ton of high-quality enriched coal will cost USD136, semi-coked coal -- USD107 and washed thermal coal –USD11.

PM Oyun-Erdene noted that the government aims to export value-added products through ways such as establishing a copper smelter under the Erdenet Mining Corporation, and transition from the mining sector from extraction to processing.

The government also set out to construct a thermal power plant at Tavantolgoi deposit. This 450MW thermal plant is aimed to supply electricity to mega construction projects and programs and contribute the central energy grid to a certain extent.

Energy and Finance Ministers said that 30 percent of the total required funding will be provided through owning shares in the Erdenes Tavantolgoi JSC, while the rest will be funded with loans and assistance. A water supply is of problems in constructing a thermal power plant. Therefore, the PM obliged to resolve this matter together with construction of the coal concentrator.

Erdenes Tavantolgoi, a Mongolian state-owned joint-stock company, has launched a three-phased trading of ‘ETT’ bond to raise MNT 2 trillion. The first phase trading of the bond was organized between March 30 and April 9, raising MNT 677.7 billion. It means that the planned target of MNT 600 billion has been exceeded by 13 percent.

Stock market analysts explain in many ways what the value and advantages of the ‘ETT’ bond are. For example, firstly, the bond has low risk because the state-owned company has issued it, and secondly, it has the advantage of not being subject to depreciation as it is listed on the domestic stock exchange in US dollars.

In addition, the company has been effectively managing a large-scale construction of railway, and Tavan Tolgoi Fuel Company, and for the first time distributed dividends of 1,072 shares, being owned by every citizen of Mongolia, which has been a political tool for many years. It is likely to be reputable in the sense that is a bond of the company that has matured financially and operationally. Moreover, the Bank of Mongolia's first legal support for the issuance of foreign exchange bonds has certainly contributed to the success of the trade. The Bank of Mongolia has given legal support for the first time to issue foreign currency bonds, which has certainly contributed to the success of the trading.

In the first phase, the bonds will be repaid over a period of 24 months and interest will be paid every six months. The nominal unit price is MNT 100,000 and USD 100, and 973 individuals and companies participated in the trading. In the next phases, bonds will be repaid in up to 36 months. The first phase of trading was for the domestic investors, while the second and third phases are expected to attract more foreign investors.

Is the ETT bond by the government or the company?

Investment cannot be made rashly. Investing funds on profitable variants is certainly a basic business principle. That is why the bond with high USD and MNT interest rates is seen to be greatly profitable to the investors and stakeholders at this time when the savings interest rates are low. To be specific, the MNT interest rate announced by the central bank is 6-7 percent, while the bond’s interest rate is 10 percent. USD savings interest rate is 2.8 percent, while the bond’s USD interest rate is 6.8 percent. This is clearly a profitable variant to stock market stakeholders.

Moreover, the bond issued by a company that sells its main commodity, coal, at 5-6 times its mining cost can be seen as an opportunity to get high returns without any risk.

Government securities are considered the most reliable investment instruments. The bond issued by a company every Mongolian has shares in is part of the ‘MNT 10 trillion Comprehensive Plan for Health Protection and Economic Recovery’ being implemented by the Government of Mongolia. That is how the bond is considered to be a government security. However, Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC explained, “The bond will have no guarantee from the government. The bond issuance is based on business principles and will not affect the government’s debt ceiling.”

The government does not guarantee the bond even though it holds 81.5 percent stake in the company. The company will be accountable for any future outcomes. Nonetheless, the planned target was fully met in the first stage trading of the bond, which suggests that the stakeholders have belief in the bond issued by a state-owned company.

Is it the right time to issue a bond?

In connection with the COVID-19 situation, cash outflow began to be limited, causing a certain amount of securities to be “accumulated” at the Bank of Mongolia - which in turn, created the opportunity for the company to use it for financing its large-scale project. During this time when the foreign exchange reserve is at a significantly good level at the central bank, there is no wrong in using the finances for a state-owned enterprise that has good capacity and resources. Issuing a bond domestically serves as a big opportunity for domestic entities to get profits from the state-owned enterprise. It also has a positive impact on expanding the domestic financial and capital markets.

In the past decade, 75 million tons of coal was extracted, of which 71 million were sold on the markets. From the sales income of MNT 9.3 trillion, MNT 6.4 trillion was the income for the last 4 years - which shows that its profits are continuing to increase year after year. Furthermore, MNT 1.9 trillion was allocated in the state budget through the company in these 4 years. These are said to be indicators for how the company has already reached a point where it is relatively stable financially and can implement any project without any issues.

In 2021-2025, the company is projected to run its operations with a sales income of MNT 33.5 trillion, using about MNT 17 billion for its operational costs and allocating MNT 7.7 trillion in the state budget. Overall, the business plans and financial estimates for the coming 5 years show the company to have a net profit of MNT 11.5 trillion, with a capacity to pay citizens MNT 1.3 trillion in dividend. This estimate is not far off from reality, explained the company executives.

What will be done with the bond financing?

With the bond financing, it is planned to implement the country’s mega construction projects, including Tavantolgoi thermal power plant, coal concentrator, water supply and railroad. However, a question arises that whether MNT 2 trillion is sufficient for the abovementioned large-scale projects, otherwise there is a risk that it will be ineffective as the bond financing is spent on many projects. For this matter, the company explained that the projects have been internationally certified, with detailed blueprint, preliminary budgets and proven estimation of benefits. The projects are deemed to be possible to recoup their initial investment in a short period.

Moreover, there are several foreign investors who are interested in investing some projects. It can be seen as an opportunity that has been opened up for Mongolians to participate in such profitable projects.

It is also estimated that transportation expense would decrease in addition to drastic increase in the sales revenue with commissioning of Tavantolgoi-Gashuunsukhait railroad at the end of 2022. Mongolia started supplying over 60 percent of coking coal need of China, which was just 17 percent last year, in this time where China’s ban on Australian coal continues. Although Mongolia is located closer to China compared to other suppliers, expenses on auto road transport and coal washing and concentrating processes raise the coal price, emphasized the experts. It means that there is a necessity to launch the construction projects.

The demand to be ready for the supercycle

Economists and experts suggest that the post COVID-19 world economy is likely to contract to a great extent, however, the economic capacity of China will be enhanced. This economic growth of China will serve as a foundation to help grow the revenue of the company, whose shares are owned by every citizen of Mongolia.

International experts also see that the “commodity supercycle” that characterizes the mining commodity prices lies ahead of us. Price surges on the world’s copper, iron ore, and gold markets, which hit 10-year record high this year, outline a positive outlook for this industry.

The fact that Mongolia’s primary coking coal export market and only client - China is forecasted by international economists to lead the global market in the world in the aftermath of the pandemic is good news for us.

Although being dependent on one country in terms of sales and the lack of multiple export clients impose a disadvantage, China is already not “far” from us, having announced to promote its sustainable energy production. Thus, we are in need of fully utilizing this opportunity. To achieve that, Erdenes Tavantolgoi JSC is compelled to build its capacity and resources and be prepared for the next supercycle.

G.Urantuya

General Customs Administration reported that the total trade turnover of Mongolia reached USD 4.4 billion in the first four months of 2021, which increased by 1.4 billion or 50.6 percent compared with the same period of 2020.

Specifically, exports exceeded imports by USD 535.4 million. Exports of goods and raw materials amounted to USD 2.4 billion, an increase of 81.8 percent compared with the same period of the previous year, and 98.8 percent of the goods exported were in foreign currency.

It was also reported that Mongolia exported goods to 48 countries, of which 92.5 percent went to China, 2.3 percent to South Korea and 2 percent to Singapore, which accounted for 96.9 percent of total exports.

In addition, goods and raw materials worth USD 1.9 billion were imported, an increase of USD 374.9 million or 23.6 percent compared with the same period of the previous year.

The strict lockdown (Red Level of heightened state of emergency readiness) imposed nationwide on April 10 was lifted this morning with the country moving into the Orange Level starting today.

The following activities and services in 18 categories will remain fully or partially restricted under the Orange Level:

Protests, demonstrations, and competitions;

Trips and wedding and other receptions;

Night clubs and karaoke clubs;

Food production and service businesses including restaurants and cafes are allowed offer takeout and delivery services only;

Markets;

Fairs;

Gaming centers and arcades;

No classes with more than 10 students are allowed;

Cultural and arts activities;

Entertainment venues are allowed to use 30 percent of their seating capacity;

Spas and fitness clubs;

Saunas and pools are allowed to work at 30 percent capacity;

Hotels, guest houses, and resorts;

Places of worship;

Sports activities except Olympic training;

Playgrounds and basketball and football fields;

Dance studios;

Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene got acquainted with the immunization progress in Tsagaan Khad, Umnugobi aimag.

As of May 7, over 40,000 people including coal truck drivers, border and customs officers and citizens of residential areas and baghs (smallest administration unit) have received the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine and over 12,000 people have received the second shot.

In Tsagaan Khad customs’ control zone, 9.9 million tons of coal of 28 entities has been remained. Due to the pandemic, mining product export has declined by 47 percent compared to the same period of 2019. Therefore, the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry is aiming to involve workers of mining companies’ in the vaccination actively to raise the coal export, said the Mining Minister.

The PM said that the government has been taking all necessary measures to not cause any disruptions in export. In particular, with supplying PCR machine, domestic military officers are being mobilized at a restriction zone in prevention to mix long-and short-distance coal transportation vehicles.

Ministry of Health was tasked to supply required doses of the vaccine to Umnugobi and Dornogobi aimags in a short period. Moreover, the Minister of Mining and Heavy Industry was obliged to take immediate measures to increase export of mining product. “By doing so, the two aimags are possible to become ‘Green Zone,’ which will enable to run the export normally, said the PM.

The same day, the PM became familiarized with the operation of Gashuunsukhait border checkpoint. As of April 30, over 67,000 vehicles crossed the country’s border, carrying copper concentrate and goods.

Meanwhile, authorities of the border checkpoint presented some proposals to the PM on intensifying renovation and extension works at the checkpoint, connecting Tsagaan Khad residential area with permanent power as well as implementing ‘Green Gateway’ temporary regulation on Mongolia-China border checkpoints. The PM pledged to study the proposals.

Mongolia's General Election Commission has officially registered three politicians as candidates for the upcoming presidential election, local media reported Saturday.

The commission approved Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, chairman of the ruling Mongolian People's Party, Sodnomzundui Erdene, former chairman of the opposition Democratic Party, and Dangaasuren Enkhbat, former legislator, as presidential candidates.

Enkhbat is the candidate from the Right Person Electorate Coalition, which won one seat in the regular parliamentary elections held in June 2020.

Political parties or coalitions that have at least one seat in parliament are eligible to nominate their candidates for the presidential election.

Mongolia has set June 9 as the date for its next presidential election. Enditem

Mongolia on Sunday confirmed 804 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, bringing the national tally to 44,820, according to the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases.

Meanwhile, two more fatalities were reported, raising the death toll to 174, the center said, adding that 1,389 more recoveries were reported, bringing the nationwide count to 31,373.

The Asian country launched a COVID-19 vaccination campaign in late February, with the aim of vaccinating at least 60 percent of its total 3.3 million population.

More than 1,536,700 people have so far received their first dose and over 617,900 have got both jabs, according to the authorities. Enditem