Towards the end of each year, China's coal imports decline, only to restart with vigor early the next year. This slowdown, officially blamed on customs clearance issues, has happened for the past two years. This official explanation has shown a remarkable regularity at the end of the year when China has mostly satisfied its domestic need for coal.

In both 2018 and 2019 around November, a line of coal trucks kilometers long would sit at Mongolia's southern border with China in below-freezing temperatures waiting to be processed.

An Australian coal miner said they believed Australian coal imports were simply being delayed until January. Yet this year seems to be different. The recent trade spat between China and Australia has resulted in China eliminating clearance restrictions from several countries, except for Australia. And in December, more reports surfaced that China banned Australian coal in breach of WTO rules.

Since July, Mongolia's coal export has been ramping up and trying to make up ground that it lost due to coal exports dipping to near zero in March.

Mongolia's Finance Ministry stated in 2019 that mining revenues made up 27% of the state budget. In addition, prior to just a few days ago Mongolia might have been looking at a hard slowdown of customs clearance for coal exports at the border in November.

While the spat between Australia and China would be seen to be an opportunity for Mongolia, it is important to keep in mind the type of coal that Mongolia predominantly exports to China.

Nevertheless, for the past few years, Mongolia has been running up against China’s de facto coal quotas.

With Australia sidelined, Mongolia has a significant opportunity to ramp up coking coal exports.

In 2019 Mongolia’s share of coking coal exports hovered around 50% of China’s total import. In 2020 Australia filled the gap left by Mongolia and in March accounted for nearly 80% of China’s coking coal imports.

Now it is Mongolia’s turn to fill the gap. If Australian coal imports remain stranded at sea, Mongolia could increase coking coal exports significantly in the near term.

Challenges remain for Mongolia. Currently, coal is still trucked to China, and the under-construction Tavan-Tolgoi Gashuunsukhait railroad is scheduled to be completed in 2022. This railroad will improve margins by reducing transportation costs and speed customs clearance, which will result in higher revenues and increase exportability.

Until then, the main bottleneck is still customs clearance with China.

The recently opened “green channel”, which optimizes clearance of cross-border freight and related personnel, has been said to help. Yet due to the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mongolia, China insisted truck drivers entering the country be tested before being allowed to cross the border (almost 12,000 truck drivers were tested for Covid).

Currently, there is a big opportunity in front of Mongolia, and we will see early in 2021 if it can take advantage of it.

By Robert Ritz: Based in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, Robert Ritz is a data scientist and a director of English-language LETU University in Mongolia.

PetroChina discovered a natural gas field with reserves in excess of 100 billion cubic meters, Chinese states news agency Xinhua reported this weekend.

The agency cited a company official who said the field could produce 610,000 cubic meters of gas plus 106.3 cubic meters of crude oil daily.

"The discovery marks a major breakthrough in gas exploration in the southern rim of the Junggar Basin, which will further guarantee the gas supply of our company and contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region," Huo Jin, general manager of PetroChina's unit in the northwestern province of Xinjiang, said.

Last week, another subsidiary of PetroChina reported growing natural gas production this year, as Beijing aims for a greater share of domestic production in its gas consumption.

Southwest Oil and Gasfield Company said it had produced some 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas since the start of the year and expected the annual total to reach 31.6 billion cubic meters. This will represent a sixth of China's total natural gas output. By 2025, the company plans to boost this to 50 billion cubic meters per year.

China is one of the world's largest natural gas importers, and as demand for the fuel soars, so do imports.

Back in 2010, imports accounted for just 15 percent of China's natural gas supply. By 2018, the share of imports in the country's gas supply surged to nearly half—45 percent—of the total supply. As consumption has been vastly outpacing domestic natural gas production, China has been looking for three years to raise its own production.

This has prompted Beijing to double down on its efforts to expand domestic production, including both conventional and unconventional reserves. As a result of these efforts, Rystad Energy reported recently, China will become the top market for seismic exploration onshore over the next two years, while exploration activity remains subdued elsewhere in the world.

This article was originally published on Oilprice.com

President Vladimir Putin has signed a law granting former Russian presidents expanded immunity from prosecution and allowing them to become senators for life in the upper house of Parliament once they leave the Kremlin.

The new law follows sweeping reforms of Russia’s political system initiated by Putin this year. Among other things, it allows him to run for two more six-year terms in the Kremlin if he chooses.

Putin orders start of Russia’s mass COVID vaccination programme

The legislation was part of constitutional amendments that were approved this summer in a nationwide vote that allowed Putin to remain president until 2036. He would otherwise have had to step down in 2024.

The reforms are being parsed for clues as to what Putin, 68, may do at the end of his current term, which is his second consecutive term and his fourth overall.

Former presidents were already entitled to immunity from prosecution for crimes committed while in office, but the new law grants them lifelong immunity and says they cannot be arrested, searched, questioned or prosecuted.

The new legislation also makes it harder to revoke a former president’s immunity.

Among other things, the process involves the upper house of Parliament voting overwhelmingly to revoke it on the strength of accusations by the lower house that the president has committed treason or another serious crime.

The other laws signed by Putin allow presidents to name up to 30 senators to the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house, and to join the Council themselves once they have left office.

On Tuesday, the lower house State Duma also passed legislation making information about employees of Russia’s judicial system, law enforcement and regulatory and military bodies confidential.

The bill now requires Putin’s signature to become law, a step that is considered a formality.

It comes a day after opposition figure Alexey Navalny said he telephoned an alleged security agent and tricked him into admitting the Federal Security Service (FSB) tried to kill him in August by poisoning.

Navalny said he had gained access to the security agent’s phone number from leaked logs and travel records.

The Kremlin critic later published the agent’s alleged address and phone number, actions that would become illegal under the newly proposed legislation.

Mongolia reported a total of 13 new COVID-19 infections in the last 24 hours, bringing its total confirmed cases to 1,006, according to the country's National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD) on Tuesday.

The latest confirmed cases were locally transmitted or patients being hospitalized at the capital city's Bayanzurkh District General Hospital, their family members and health workers of the hospital, said Amarjargal Ambaselmaa, head of the NCCD's Surveillance Department, at a press conference.

A total of 563 domestically transmitted cases of the virus have been reported across the country so far, according to the NCCD.

The Mongolian government on Monday decided to reimpose lockdown measures in Ulan Bator starting Wednesday to Jan. 6, 2021, to curb resurging local COVID-19 cases.

The Asian country's first round of local transmissions was detected in early November, when a woman tested positive after her husband returned from Russia.

The incident triggered a nationwide lockdown that was later extended in Ulan Bator and provinces of Selenge and Arkhangai until Dec. 11.

The country has recorded 541 recoveries and no deaths so far. Enditem

On December 21, 2020, the Mongolian government announced that a state of “all-out-preparedness” and associated lockdown measures would be reimposed in Ulaanbaatar beginning at 0600 on December 23 and continuing until at least 0600 on January 6. This decision follows reports of additional confirmed cases associated with a local COVID-19 cluster.

American citizens should expect the reimposition of anti-COVID-19 measures adopted during the previous lockdown, including the suspension of non-essential businesses, movement restrictions (both vehicular and pedestrian), and ongoing contact tracing. The public is once again urged to stay home and leave only to buy groceries, medicines, and other necessities. Supermarkets, grocery stores, and markets will remain open, and residents are encouraged to shop in their neighborhoods.

The following additional sectors will be permitted to continue limited operations during this period:

Energy, improved heating fuel supply

Food production, trade, distribution, and transportation services

Petroleum products, fuel supply, distribution, and transportation activities

Fodder distribution and transportation activities

National important and strategically considered organizations, their supply flows and transportation operations

Public transportation and licensed taxi services

Urban water supply, sanitation and their operations

Supply of medical organizations, medicines, and medical equipment

Bank operations

Media, communication, and postal services

Activities of organizations with special functions

Legislative, judicial, prosecutorial, advocacy, and notarial activities

Funeral services

Center for Domestic Violence and Child Care

Some public administration bodies

City residents working in industries other than those listed above will be prohibited from traveling via car, and drivers with recently-granted QR codes should see their codes reactivated.

Travel into Ulaanbaatar city remains possible until 0600 on December 23, subject to previously-announced re-entry procedures, while travel out of Ulaanbaatar is restricted. (Emergency travel out of Ulaanbaatar may be possible, depending on the circumstances.) At present, public transportation will continue operating at normal hours.

Citizens are encouraged to review previous Embassy announcements containing guidance on the measures adopted by the Mongolian government related to the community transmission of COVID-19 by visiting: https://mn.usembassy.gov/.../security-and-travel.../.

Ulaanbaatar, 22 December 2020 – The European Union has disbursed the first 16-million-euro to the Government of Mongolia which is part of the 50.8-million-euro Budget Support programme signed by EU and Government of Mongolia in May 2020. As part of this programme, a new project, “SDG-aligned Budgeting to Transform Employment in Mongolia,” is launched to complement the Government of Mongolia’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 socio-economic challenges. The project aims to support employment and promotion of decent work and improved public finance management systems through results-oriented budget initiatives as direct contribution to the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals.

The project will work with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection, the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry. It will be implemented by UNDP Mongolia in partnership with UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Labour Organization with a duration of 3.5 years.

H.E. Mr. Traian Hristea, EU Ambassador to Mongolia, highlighted that the Direct Budget Support programme is an effective mechanism that aligns EU's development assistance with Mongolia's social sector reform agenda. As a top up to budget funding, it gives the Government of Mongolia the additional fiscal space to implement its development priorities to improve the lives of the Mongolian people during the difficult times of COVID-19.

“The EU grant will also contribute to employment creation and decent work, especially for youth and vulnerable groups, and is designed to further assist the Government of Mongolia in strengthening its governance of revenues to create inclusive and sustainable growth.”

With the poverty level hovering at 28.4% (2018) with another 15% just above the poverty level, widening inequalities is one of the major issues in Mongolia further fuelled by unemployment, especially, in times of COVID-19, as it is causing a significant burden on businesses and the employment sector. Diverse impacts of the pandemic are threatening not only to slow down, but also to roll back the achievements that Mongolia made towards achieving SDGs by 2030 creating an unprecedented need to strengthen the efforts made by all stakeholders towards the SDGs.

“UNDP Mongolia commends Mongolia’s transition to evidence-based and result-focused planning, budgeting, monitoring and evaluation, and reporting systems. We also would like to thank the European Union for this opportunity to partner on the critical area of employment, with a particular focus on youth, people with disabilities, women, and the rural population” stated Ms. Elaine Conkievich, UNDP Mongolia Resident Representative.

“UNDP Mongolia remains committed to work with all stakeholders to increase employment and promote decent work in Mongolia by supporting efficient, accountable and responsive delivery of public services in the Labour and Employment sector; supporting the modernisation of Mongolia’s Public Finance Management systems and strengthening institutional capacities in the country” she said.

About European Union

The European Union aims to deliver assistance in an effective and flexible way by making use of partner countries' systems. The EU works with its partner countries along four overall objectives: reinforcing democracy; encouraging economic and human development; fostering the rule of law and respect for human rights, and promoting peace, stability and security in the region. The current EU development assistance programme in Mongolia (also known as the Multiannual Indicative Programme) for the period 2014–2020 has two focal areas: Improved governance of revenues for inclusive and sustainable growth; and Support for better employment opportunities. The EU's current financial support amounts to over €50 million with 32 EU funded projects implemented by partner international organizations together with national authorities and organizations.

About UNDP

UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and planet.

About FAO

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger with the goal achieve food security for all and make sure that people have regular access to enough high-quality food to lead active, healthy lives.

About ILO

Advancing social justice, promoting decent work. The International Labour Organization is the United Nations agency for the world of work. We bring together governments, employers and workers to drive a human-centred approach to the future of work through employment creation, rights at work, social protection and social dialogue.

There is growing international alarm over a new variant of the coronavirus in the UK, with a host of countries imposing travel bans.

More than 40 countries have barred UK arrivals, as the EU held talks on forming a common policy.

Sweden banned foreign travellers from Denmark after cases of the variant were discovered there.

The new strain is more transmissible but there is no evidence it is more deadly.

New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

Tracking the global pandemic: Where has been hit hardest?

As the list of countries imposing travel restrictions on the UK grew, the World Health Organization (WHO) sought to put the risks in context.

WHO emergencies chief Mike Ryan said new strains were a normal part of the evolution of a pandemic, and that it was not "out of control", contradicting the UK's Health Secretary Matt Hancock, who used those words on Sunday.

In another development, travellers from South Africa are also facing bars from some countries after another new variant of the virus was discovered that is unrelated to the one found in the UK.

What's happening in Europe?

Much of the continent has banned UK arrivals in an attempt to halt the spread of the new strain.

France imposed a ban on passengers and freight from the UK, causing disruption at the key southern British port of Dover.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was working with French President Emmanuel Macron to resume trade, and that he hoped the issue would be resolved "as soon as possible".

The French Transport Minister Clément Beaune said his country would by Tuesday announce what would replace the initial 48-hour ban on travellers and lorries.

In Brussels, officials have been holding talks on finding a co-ordinated response from the EU's 27 members.

No decision is expected until Tuesday, but one option discussed was demanding that UK arrivals test negative for Covid-19 before they leave.

There was some better news from the continent on Monday, with the EU's medicines regulator approving the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, paving the way for jabs to be given as early as Sunday.

And in the rest of the world?

Many other countries, from India, to Iran, to Canada have banned UK arrivals.

The US is yet to follow suit, but two airlines - British Airways and Delta - will only allow passengers who test negative for the coronavirus to fly to New York's John F Kennedy airport.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman have shut their borders completely to international passengers.

Along with Denmark, the new strain has also been detected in Australia, Italy and the Netherlands.

The handful of cases found in Denmark prompted Sweden to ban arrivals from there, the first time it has imposed such restrictions on a neighbour.

"There is an obvious risk that Danes will be tempted to cross over to Sweden to shop for Christmas presents," Home Affairs Minister Mikael Damberg said, according to the AFP news agency.

Some experts believe that the new strain has already spread beyond where it has been reported, crediting the UK's use of genomic surveillance for detecting it.

"I think we will find in the coming days that a lot of other countries will find it," Marc Van Ranst, a virologist from the Rega Institute for Medical Research in Belgium, told broadcaster VRT.

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. Prime Minister of Mongolia U.Khurelsukh received WHO Representative in Mongolia Sergey Diorditsa today.

During the meeting, they exchanged views on the current state of COVID-19 pandemic and the measures being taken to tackle the spread. Prime Minister U.Khurelsukh emphasized that the government of Mongolia intends to import high-quality vaccines approved by the World Health Organization as soon as possible. He also thanked the United Nations, especially the World Health Organization, for continuing to provide assistance and support to Mongolia in overcoming the pandemic, and said that professional and methodological advice on combating the pandemic and controlling the spread of the infection has been most significant.

The parties discussed the possibility of importing vaccines to Mongolia in the first quarter of 2021 within the framework of COVAX. Representative Sergey Diorditsa also provided information on the progress of some vaccines being developed internationally.

Moreover, he underscored that the measures taken by the Government of Mongolia and the State Emergency Commission, the transition to a state of readiness,

Ulaanbaatar /MONTSAME/. At its irregular meeting held today on December 21, the Cabinet made the decision to reintroduce strict lockdown partly in Ulaanbaatar city starting from 6 AM, December 23 until 6AM, January 6.

During the press conference, Deputy Prime Minister Ya.Sodbaatar highlighted that the decision was made based on the suggestions received from the Ministry of Health, the National Center for Communicable Diseases as well as scholars and researchers. He also noted that the measures have been set to be implemented from 6 AM December 23 in order to provide the opportunity for citizens who had left for rural parts of the country to return to the capital city and make necessary preparations.

He said, “Ever since the start of the outbreak, the Government of Mongolia prioritized the protection of our citizens’ health and safety. Thus, our strategy so far has been to take appropriate measures in order to stop further infection and to not cause an overload on the healthcare sector. Due to close contact, cases continue to be recorded daily in the cluster of Bayanzurkh district in the capital city. Furthermore, as patients that were discharged from the Bayanzurkh hospital on December 11-15 have also recently tested positive for the virus, professional institutions have warned us of the increased risk of the spread of infections. As the movement of citizens will significantly increase in correlation with the celebration of the New Year despite the decision to suspend widespread celebration, we made this decision in prevention of further increase in risk.”

While previously 13 sectors were allowed to run their operations during the strict-lockdown, this time the Cabinet will be allowing the operations of 15 types of businesses, which include food stores and supermarkets, food manufacturers, food distribution, gas stations, fuel suppliers, public toilets, disinfection and sterilization places, hospitals, courts and prosecution offices, pharmacies, power stations, banks, communications and media, and funeral services.

The metallurgical coal and infrastructure company plans to export up to 4 million tonnes of coking coal to China once its Ovoot Project in Mongolia comes into production.

Aspire Mining Ltd - Aspire Mining’s Mongolian project poised to benefit from China’s rumoured shift away from Australian coal

The company’s share price doubled last week after speculation about a Chinese ban on Australian coal

Aspire Mining Ltd is the only ASX-listed company to have coking coal assets in Mongolia and could be well-placed to benefit from recent speculation that China is shifting away from Australian coal.

The company owns the world-class Ovoot Coking Coal Project, and while rumours around the Chinese sentiment focus on thermal coal, the company experienced a sharp share price bump last week as investors anticipated a complete coal ban.

Last Monday, the company sat at around 7.2 cents per share and after Chinese State Media alluded to restrictions on Australian coal and a refocus to prioritise imports from Mongolia, Russia and Indonesia, the share price doubled before levelling out at around 8.6 cents.

China recently introduced tariffs on Australian goods including wine, barley and beef and the unofficial coal ban has only increased tensions between the two countries.

Coal market in Mongolia

Mongolian coking coal export volumes to China have been recovering from a border shutdown between the two countries earlier in the year.

For the six months ended June 2020, China imported 7.2 million tonnes of coking coal from Mongolia (a 56% decline from the prior year) while imports from Australia rose 65% year-on-year to 24 million tonnes.

However, for the balance of the second half of the year Mongolian coking coal exports are expected to revert to more normalised levels while Australian exports to China slow.

In September 2020 Mongolia exported 3.9 million tonnes to China, which represented 58% of China’s coking coal exports.

In contrast, Australia exported just 2 million tonnes to China that month.

The first news of curtailments to Australian coal imports was reported in October, placing Aspire in the perfect position to benefit from any increase in Mongolian exports going forward.

Ovoot Project development

The company is targeting early production of washed coking coal from a first-stage development of the Ovoot Project, known as the Ovoot Early Development Plan (OEDP).

The start of development is linked to the completion of the Definitive Environmental Impact Assessment (DEIA), which has been impacted with access the site to commence the ground activities halted by the deferral of local community engagement meetings due to COVID-19 control measures.

The OEDP and pre-feasibility study is focused on a truck and rail operation to deliver up to 4 million tonnes per annum to end markets in China and Russia.

Infrastructure map showing Ovoot transport route to steel customers

September trial shipment

During the September quarter, a trial shipment of 3,300 tonnes of coking coal was moved by rail from an existing mine in Mongolia to the city of Ulanqab in China, which after beneficiation will be railed further to Tangshan and the Port of Caofeidian.

This is an important target market for Ovoot coking coal as the company plans to truck coking coal from the mine site to access rail at the city of Erdenet.

Strong financial outlook

At the end of the September quarter, the company was fully cashed up, with a cash balance of A$38.5 million to fund the Ovoot Project development and no debt.

This strong financial outlook is partially due to a $33.5 million placement in September 2019, which saw major shareholder Tserenpuntsag Tserendamba increase his holding to 51% and strategically reposition Aspire as a Mongolian led company.

Notably, the placement price was 2.1 cents per share, and with a share consolidation of 10 to 1 in December 19– makes for a placement price the equivalent of 21 cents today which is substantially higher than the current share price.

Funding commitments through to production

In addition, financial support is secure with Tserenpuntsag supplying a letter of intent around provision of a corporate guarantee for up to $100 million to support future project financing for the OEDP and pro-rata equity contributions to maintain a 51% shareholding in Aspire alongside all shareholders to fund Ovoot into production.

The company is confident that the development of the Ovoot Coking Coal Project will leave Aspire well placed to take advantage of any shift from China away from Australian coal.