According to MongolianNews, Mongolia’s economy has relied primarily on coal exports for many years, but last year saw a historic development: for the first time, revenue from copper concentrate exports exceeded that from coal exports.

This trend has intensified this year due to the fall in global coal prices and the simultaneous rise in copper prices. Consequently, in the first half of the year, copper once again outstripped coal in terms of revenue.

In the first six months of the year, mineral products accounted for 87.2 per cent of the country’s total export revenue. Of this, copper concentrate accounted for 44.7 per cent of revenue, and coal for 37.9 per cent. During this period, Mongolia exported 56.8 million tonnes of coal worth US$3.94 billion; in physical terms, the volume of shipments increased by 21.7 million tonnes, whilst revenue rose by $1.4 billion compared with the same period last year. However, the fall in global coal prices continues to limit further revenue growth in this sector.

At the same time, the volume of copper concentrate exports reached 1.31 million tonnes, generating revenue of $4.65 billion. Compared with the same period last year, exports increased by 253,300 tonnes, whilst revenue grew 1.9-fold to $2.3 billion.

The main driver behind the growth in copper revenues is the rapid growth in global demand. Experts identify three key factors: infrastructure for artificial intelligence, for the large-scale construction of data centres worldwide; eco-friendly transport, with a rapid increase in the production of electric vehicles; and clean energy, resulting from the active expansion of renewable energy projects.

Against this backdrop, the price of refined copper on the London Metal Exchange has reached $13,645 per tonne. International investment banks and research institutes are extremely optimistic about the metal’s prospects; analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast that the price of refined copper will reach $13,735 per tonne by the end of the year, more than 10 per cent higher than their previous estimate of $12,465.

Coal is likely to retain its status as the country’s leading export in terms of volume. However, the statistics clearly demonstrate a profound transformation in the structure of foreign exchange earnings: if global demand for copper remains high and prices continue to rise, the leading role in shaping Mongolia’s economy will gradually shift from coal to copper.

State budget revenues, foreign exchange inflows and overall economic growth will no longer be linked exclusively to the coal sector, but will depend directly on demand and price cycles in the copper market.

In these circumstances, it is important that the state does not simply wait for a favourable phase in the commodities cycle, but actively manages opportunities through a sound long-term strategy. To achieve this objective, it is necessary to step up geological exploration to discover new promising deposits, create a stable legal framework to attract large-scale, long-term investment, and increase the value added of products by introducing deep enrichment and raw material processing technologies at the national level. The implementation of these measures will help to transform the growing global demand for copper into a permanent driving force for Mongolia’s economic development, rather than it simply being a source of temporary gains arising from high prices.

Published Date:2026-09-01