A total of 5,421 citizens were involved in immunization in the capital city yesterday, May 11. More specifically, 3,794 people received their first shots of COVID-19 vaccine while 1,627 people have gotten their second shots.

Since the vaccination rollout launched in February 2021, 94.8 percent of capital city citizens aged over 18 or 903,948 people have had the first dose of vaccine and 50.8 percent or 481,414 people have been fully vaccinated.

At the national level, 1,678,198 people or 81.2 percent have been vaccinated with the first dose of vaccine and 631,666 people or 30.6 percent with the second dose.

The Cabinet made the following decisions at its regular meeting on May 12.

-Imported tractors, combines, and other agricultural machinery, irrigation and greenhouse equipment, forestry and poultry farming equipment, fertilizers and plant protection products will be exempted from customs tax until January 1, 2022. The Cabinet approved a list of over 120 types of equipment and substances to be exempted from the tax.

-Imported and domestically sold tractors, combines and other agricultural machinery, irrigation and greenhouse equipment, forestry and poultry farming equipment, fertilizers and plant protection products will be exempted from value added tax until January 1, 2025. The Cabinet approved a list of over 120 types of equipment and substances to be exempted from the tax.

-Minister of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry Z.Mendsaikhan was ordered to look into making additions to the list of goods to be purchased from domestic enterprises that meet the quality and standard requirements and have verification of conformity. Government and local organizations were ordered to actively make purchases under the General Agreement and annually participate in the Patriotic Purchase-Domestic Production exhibition fair. Last year, 51 government and local organizations purchased products worth around MNT 326 billion from domestic producers. The amount equals 98 percent of the total cost of products included on the list.

-The Cabinet also decided to name the border military unit No. 0108 in Zamyn-Uud soum of Dornogobi aimag after Honored Scientific Worker, Academician, Doctor, Professor, Lieutenant General Sh.Arvai and the border military unit No. 0166 in Gurvantes soum of Umnugobi aimag after General M.Batkhuyag.

On June 9, presidential elections will take place in Mongolia for the eighth time since the democratic revolution in 1990. In the weeks leading up to the election, the political stakes have soared. Political polarization has been coupled with court rulings, presidential decrees, party splits, and mergers. All of this has put Mongolia’s rather institutionalized party system in an unprecedented state of instability which, if not checked, might lead to the unexpected collapse of democracy in the country.

Mongolia never had a president until the figure was introduced in the aftermath of the 1990 revolution. Even then, Punsalmaagiin Ochirbat, former chairman of the presidium of the People’s Great Khural (as the Communist parliament was named) and first Mongolian president, was appointed by the parliament. It was only two years later that the new constitution, after long and hard discussions, decided to include a popularly elected head of state. Ochirbat was re-elected as president with 60 percent of the vote on June 6, 1993. We revisit here not only the problems popular presidential elections have posed for Mongolian politics in the past, but also the reasons why the current situation is not surprising.

Ever since the American-based Spanish scholar Juan Linz published his seminal article “The Perils of Presidentialism” (1990), academics have showcased the problems popular presidential elections might entail. In a recent policy paper published by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, another Spanish scholar (one of this paper’s authors) – although this time U.K.-based – warns anew about the perils of popular presidential elections. Among other issues, the paper highlights how popular presidential elections might lead to party de-institutionalization, party system fragmentation, and polarization. Each can be observed in the case of contemporary Mongolia.

Party System Fragmentation

Presidential office, even in countries like Mongolia where the position does not entail many real powers, constitutes the highest aspiration of many politicians. The idea of becoming head of state becomes an obsession for ambitious politicians who, in the case of losing office or not winning nomination, might decide to create their own parties with which they can bid again for the highest office. This, for example, is what happened after the 2009 presidential election, when the then incumbent president and Mongolia People’s Party (MPP) candidate, Enkhbayar Nambar, lost to the Democratic Party candidate. Nambar blamed his loss on MPP leaders and decided to establish a new party, the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP), with other members of parliament originally from the MPP. Interestingly enough, these two parties will be merging again before a presidential election next month.

Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.

Party De-institutionalization: Factionalism

Given the zero-sum logic the popular election of a president entails, presidential elections tend to present an extremely personalistic character which, in turn, tends to lead to organizational splits and the formation of new, weaker political parties. This is especially the case in countries where, like Mongolia, parties are already extremely factionalized. The formation of MPRP in 2010 and the current internal disputes within the Democratic Party (DP) are clear examples of factions generating instability within parties.

DIPLOMAT BRIEF

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

N

Get briefed on the story of the week, and developing stories to watch across the Asia-Pacific.

GET THE NEWSLETTER

The DP’s present troubles were mainly triggered by President Battulga Khaltmaa’s attempt to get the party’s nomination for the upcoming presidential elections. This led to a split in the party between those supporting Khaltmaa’s aspirations and those standing behind former DP Chairman Erdene Sodnomzundui.

It is important to understand that, contrary to most semi-presidential countries in the world, in Mongolia only parliamentary parties can nominate candidates in presidential elections. This poses a problem, especially when incumbents who have lost grip on their own party because of the obligation to resign their membership when elected, want to run for re-election. The DP case clearly illustrates the extent to which presidential elections might be a curse for Mongolian political parties. As former Minister of Justice Temuujin Khishigdemberel once put it, “parties suffer the most when their candidate is elected president.”

The split within the DP, Mongolia’s main opposition party, forced the Supreme Court to reject the petition of its two factions, which held party primaries simultaneously, to register their respective leaders as leader of the party and potentially a presidential candidate. This would have cleared the path for MPP to win the June presidential elections in the first round, if not for another important event, another outcome characteristic of semi-presidential regimes: polarization.

Polarization

Popular presidential elections might not just lead to an in increase in the level of electoral support for anti-establishment parties, but also foster political polarization. Because of the necessity of presidential candidates to appeal to voters beyond their own parties, presidential election campaigns in Mongolia have been characterized by negative campaigning, inimical competition, and populist discourse. There is no better example of this than Battulga’s 2017 campaign motto: “Mongolia will win.” To some it meant that his MPP rival, Enkhbold Miyegombo, was not a “pure” Mongolian. To others it meant that he was an agent of foreign powers or multinational corporations. Ideology and policies were left aside, leading to personal attacks among politicians and voter polarization.

The current situation characterized by MPP’s illegal banning by the president in response to a resolution of the Constitutional Court barring him from running in the forthcoming elections is another example of how popular presidential elections constitute a venue for polarization, more so than legislative elections.

Government Instability

Presidential elections can also lead to government instability and, ultimately, party system change and de-institutionalization. Khurelsukh Ukhanaa’s recent resignation is just the most recent example. Under the excuse of public demonstrations in Ulaanbaatar’s central square, despite MPP’s supermajority after the 2020 parliamentary elections, Khurelsukh became the first prime minister to resign, making his cabinet the shortest in the history of Mongolian democracy. Now it is clear that it was just a pretext, and that his intention was to run in the forthcoming presidential elections. There have been many other instances where cabinet changes where triggered by presidential elections or presidential power struggles within ruling parties. Former Prime Minister Altankhuyag Norov has continuously maintained that it was President Elbegdorj who orchestrated his removal from office, even though they were both from the same party, the DP.

Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.

The timing of presidential elections, just one year apart from parliamentary polls, has been also an important factor behind the country’s political turmoil, as newly formed governments always need to adjust to results in the presidential contest. If Khurelshukh loses, the current Luvsannamsrai cabinet, formed at the end of January, is expected to change again.

Conclusion

Scholars have shown that the popular election of a country’s head of state can be a peril for its democracy. By increasing fragmentation, weakening political parties, hindering party system institutionalization, increasing government instability, and promoting polarization, popular presidential elections perhaps should be avoided, especially in new democracies. As explained above, the current political situation seems to confirm these fears, showing that – barely one year after a constitutional reform was passed – an important opportunity to introduce the type of checks and balances characteristic of parliamentary regimes proposed by Mongolian experts was missed.

By Bat-Orgil Altankhuyag and Fernando Casal Bértoa

“E-Mongolia” Center was opened at the Central Post Office on May 9. The center will provide 516 online services of around 50 government organizations, giving instructions and advices to citizens.

Opening ceremony of the center was attended by Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene, Governor of the Capital City D.Sumiyabazar and authorities of information and communication technology sector.

The PM said that the government should be transparent to its citizens. Digitization of government services will eliminate bureaucracy, red tape and corruption. This is an important step for good governance. Further, we will digitize all public services. Government officials will come to the center and exchange information with you all. The Government will collaborate with its citizens for good governance and make all necessary changes.

For the capital city, 113 types of public services have been fully integrated into E-Mongolia system. Further, aside from 20 services of eight organizations, 34 types of special permission services will be digitized with the financing of the Urban Governance Project being implemented by the Asia Foundation, said D.Sumiyabazar, Governor of the Capital City.

As of May 9, citizens have obtained 1.6 million public services (in repeated counting) from e-Mongolia system. If the citizens have any problem to get public services from www.e-mongolia.mn and mobile applications, it is available to be served by the center and get instructions.

The Mineral Resources Professional Council (MRPC) concluded that it supports and will approve Petro Matad’s Plan of Development for the Block XX Exploitation License once certain technical clarifications have been provided and any resulting amendments to the documentation deemed necessary have been made. The meeting of the to review Petro Matad’s Plan of Development was convened virtually due to the Covid-19 lockdown in Ulaanbaatar.

The items requiring clarification have been received from MRPC. With the recent relaxation of lockdown restrictions in Mongolia, the Company is now in discussion with MRPC’s designated officials to clarify the points raised in order to secure MRPC written approval of the Plan of Development.

“We are pleased to have received the support of the MRPC for our Heron Field Plan of Development and we are working with the designated representatives to provide clarification and complete any minor amendments as soon as possible,” said Mike Buck, CEO of Petro Matad.

Further updates will be provided in due course. Petro Matad holds 100% working interest and the operatorship of three Production Sharing Contracts with the Government of Mongolia. Block XX has an area of 10,367 square kilometers (4,003 sq mi) in the far eastern part of the country.

Mongolia recorded 512 new cases of coronavirus, the Ministry of Health said on May 12.

464 new cases were registered in Ulaanbaatar, the rest were confirmed in the regions.

The total number of coronavirus infection reached 46,448.

35,733 patients recovered, with 1,503 in the last 24 hours.

5 new deaths were recorded.

The Bank of Mongolia has reported that there are a total of 100,867 borrowers of mortgage loans totaling around MNT 5.2 trillion as of March 2021. Among them, 74.7 percent or 75,570 borrowers have taken out mortgage loans amounting to MNT 3.7 trillion under the mortgage loan program, 21.7 percent of borrowers have loans sourced from the commercial banks’ own funding and 3.6 percent are from other types of sources. 17 percent of all mortgage loans issued, which equal to MNT 851 billion are allotted in rural areas. In March 2021 alone, banks issued loans to 1,870 new borrowers with total funding of MNT 149 billion.

In order to increase affordability and accessibility of apartments and reduce air pollution in urban areas, the Mongolian government started implementing a mortgage loan program in 2013, targeting mostly families living in Ger district areas. With loan funding from the Bank of Mongolia, commercial banks have been providing Mongolian citizens aged above 18 years old housing mortgages at a subsidized interest rate of eight percent per annum for a maximum of 30 years for the purchase of an apartment of up to 80 square meters.

Beginning from October 2020, the Bank of Mongolia’s regulation on the housing mortgage financing have been changed to reduce the annual interest rate of housing mortgages issued after October 01, 2020 down to six percent with a view to make mortgages more affordable by providing reduced interest rate loans with government subsidies.

As of April 21, 2021 a total of MNT 364 billion in mortgage loans with a six-percent interest rate have been disbursed to 4,972 borrowers. The six-percent mortgage loans will remain available as part of the MNT 10 trillion comprehensive plan for health protection and economic recovery with MNT 2 two trillion earmarked for mortgage loans through 2024.

According to the Bank of Mongolia, the central bank is also planning to issue mortgage-backed bonds in the future, with an annual repayment of MNT 350-450 billion, which will be used to finance subsidized mortgage loans. As a result, yearly mortgage loan funding is expected to grow to MNT 600-700 billion, with at least 30 percent of the total funding provided to borrowers in rural areas.

The Mongolian government is aiming to open a 258.4 km railway line, connecting Tavan Tolgoi, its largest coking coal mine in South Gobi region, to the Gashuun Sukhait checkpoint also in South Gobi bordering China by July next year; once operational, the new railway will facilitate the country’s minerals logistics whilst simultaneously substantially reducing the transportation cost for coal.

The railway line will have the capacity of handling 30-50 million tonnes/year in coal exports. It is anticipated that the domestic coal transportation cost will be reduced to a quarter compared with the current haulage cost of the trucks being used on the road from Tavan Tolgoi via the Gashuun Sukhait (Ganqimaodu) checkpoint to China.

China represents the destination of almost all Mongolian coal for export. As elsewhere in the world, the pandemic has caused a slowdown. ‘The Chinese side demanded that coal truck drivers be tested for COVID-19 at the border,’ Mongolia’s Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry noted. Since this demand was issued, over 1000 drivers had been tested. The ministry noted it is working to fully test 3,000 drivers.

China accounted for 92.5 percent of Mongolia’s total exports and 39.1 percent of its total imports during the January-March period.

A court in Kyrgyzstan on Saturday imposed a $3.1 billion fine on Kumtor Gold Company, which operates the nation’s biggest gold mine, after ruling that the Canadian-owned firm had violated environmental laws.

The district court decision came just a day after Kyrgyzstan’s parliament passed a law allowing the state to temporarily take over a company if its activities pose a danger to human lives or the environment.

Kumtor, which is owned by Canada’s Centerra Gold, was found by the court to have breached environmental laws by placing waste rock on glaciers.

The company, which has called the charges “entirely meritless”, was fined 261.7 billion som, equivalent to $3.1 billion.

Centerra Gold shares plunged on Friday after parliament passed the company takeover law, as the mining firm warned that the legislation could affect its ownership of the Kumtor mine.

Kyrgyzstan has a long history of disputes with Centerra Gold over how to share profits from the former Soviet republic’s biggest industrial enterprise.

The latest stand-off began shortly after Sadyr Japarov came to power in Bishkek following violent riots last October.

Japarov once campaigned for the nationalisation of the mine and set up a special commission to look into its activities once he became president.

(By Olga Dzyubenko and Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Helen Popper)

China’s new births fell to their lowest in almost six decades amid the coronavirus pandemic last year, putting the country’s population on course to peak within the next five years and adding pressure on Beijing to step up reforms to maintain economic growth as the workforce shrinks.

There were 1.412 billion people in China last year, according to the results of a once-a-decade census, up 5.38% from a decade before, but slightly below previous official projections. The annual average population growth of 0.53% in the past decade was the slowest since the 1950s.

China’s population has become much more urbanized and educated over the past decade, trends which should allow the world’s second-largest economy to continue expanding even after its population peaks. In order to remain an engine of world growth, China will require a large increase in spending on pensions and health care and invest more in education and infrastructure to boost productivity.

Slower growth in the population means it could peak before 2025, according to estimates from Bloomberg Economics. Demographers generally predict that China will be overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation sometime over the next decade, though China’s economy will remain larger as its workers are more productive.

The number of children born in the country last year fell to 12 million, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday -- down from 14.65 million in 2019 and the lowest number since 1961 when the country was struggling in the aftermath of a famine that killed tens of millions of people.

Even though China rapidly contained the coronavirus outbreak and the economy returned to growth last year, its fertility mirrored other major nations such as the U.S., which saw births slump as economic and social dislocation undercut people’s desire to have children.

No Baby Boom

Number of births in China fell to lowest since 1961

The share of the working population -- those in the ages of 15 and 59 -- slumped to 63.4% in 2020 from more than 70% a decade ago, according to the census. Residents aged 60 and above accounted for 18.7% of the population in 2020, up from 13.3% in 2010.

The ruling Communist Party has been planning for a peak in the population since the 1970s when the country’s fertility rates started to decline due to rising incomes and policies restricting births. In the last census released in 2011, China was declaring victory over rapid population growth, long seen as a threat to the country’s ability to meet its own needs in products like rice and corn. But the slowdown in the population has been faster than officials expected: In 2017, Beijing projected the population would be 1.42 billion in 2020.

The birth policy was eased in 2016 to allow more families to have as many as two children, which caused the share of the population aged 14 or under to rise slightly to 18% from 16.6% over the past decade, the census showed.

Researchers at the central bank recently called for a complete relaxation of birth restrictions, but rising costs of raising children, combined with a shift in people’s preferences to smaller families also seen in other East Asian countries suggest that reform would not change overall fertility trends.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

We think the 2020 census data suggest a population trajectory close to the low-fertility variant projected by the United Nation’s World Population Prospects (2019). That scenario would see China’s population beginning to decline before 2025. The quicker slowing of the population, particularly of the working age, calls for more urgency in policy initiatives including promoting birth, postponing retirement, improving labor mobility through Hukou reforms etc.

Eric Zhu, China economist

Beijing is planning to maintain growth by moving more of the hundreds of millions of people who work in agricultural jobs in rural areas into cities for higher-paying manufacturing and service industry work over the coming decades.

The census showed that the country added 230 million urban residents in the past decade, with 63.9% of the population living in cities last year, up from 49.7% in 2010. That puts the proportion of urban residents in China similar to levels seen in the U.S. in 1950, suggesting large potential for further catch-up.

Paid Post

A Vital Connection Point in Southeast Asia

Malaysian Investment Development Authority

The population is also becoming much more educated, a trend which helps its economy grow. In 2020, 15.5% of people held degrees from vocational colleges or universities, up from 9% a decade earlier.

Beijing has announced it will raise the retirement age -- one of the lowest in the world at 60 years for men and as young as 50 for women -- “in a phased manner” by 2025 in order to slow a decline in the working age population. There’s already been an online backlash to the proposals and a government researcher wrote in March that any increase would take place gradually over a number of years instead of in a drastic one-time change.

Elsewhere in East Asia, populations have already begun shrinking. South Korea, which has the world’s lowest birth rates, had 11% fewer births last year and saw its population drop for the first time ever. It was the same in Taiwan, where the population has contracted several years earlier than the official models had predicted.

Japan’s population has been shrinking since 2011, and the 870,000 or so children born last year was the lowest number since records begin in 1898. In the U.S., which has one of the fastest population growth rates among developed nations, the pace slowed to the lowest since the 1930s, as both births and immigration slowed.

— With assistance by James Mayger, Lin Zhu, Tom Hancock, Yuko Takeo, Sam Kim, Yinan Zhao, Yujing Liu, and Jing Li