The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Mongolia’s economy will grow by 6.6 percent in 2025 and by 5.9 percent in 2026.
In its flagship economic report, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025, Mongolia’s economic growth slightly slowed in 2024, it is expected to accelerate in the coming years. Key drivers include the mining sector—particularly the increased production of copper concentrate at the Oyu Tolgoi mine—and the anticipated recovery of the livestock sector, which suffered significant losses in 2023 and 2024.
ADB Mongolia Resident Mission, Senior Economist Eduard Faber stated, “Mongolia managed to maintain economic resilience in 2024. The sharp contraction in the agriculture sector was offset by strong growth in mining and services. The mining sector will remain the main engine of the economy in 2025 and 2026. Domestic demand, infrastructure investment, and the gradual recovery of agriculture will also contribute to growth. However, risks remain due to dependence on commodity exports, especially coal.”
Government spending and increased energy prices have pushed inflation to 9.1 percent. While inflation pressure will remain high this year, it is expected to ease slightly to 7 percent in 2026. Exports are also projected to rise as mining output increases. However, imports will likely grow due to purchases of essential equipment and materials for investment projects, which may in turn put some pressure on the exchange rate.
The report highlights that these projections remain subject to change due to a range of potential risks, including volatility in commodity prices, particularly copper and coal—a downturn in the real estate market of the People's Republic of China, weather-related delays in the recovery of the agricultural sector, and inflation exceeding the projected rate of 9.1 percent, which could necessitate further tightening of monetary policy. While tariffs imposed by the United States and potential spillover effects are expected to have limited direct impact on Mongolia, the Asian Development Bank cautioned that a deceleration in demand from China may lead to indirect repercussions for the Mongolian economy.

Published Date:2025-04-10