In 2024, Russian East Asian expert Andrei Gubin issued a warning: China should be careful of Mongolia, as this neighbor is quietly "changing its heart".
Gubin is an old professor at Moscow State University who has studied East Asian politics for more than 30 years, and his words carry a lot of weight.
Gubin further explained: Mongolian young people are increasingly yearning for the West, and the government's "third neighbor" policy is actually preparing for the future to turn to the West.
Although this sounds harsh, if you think about it carefully, it really makes sense.
In August 2024, US Secretary of State Blinken visited Ulaanbaatar in a high-profile manner, and the two countries signed a "Strategic Third Neighbor Partnership" agreement.
A month later, Putin rushed to Mongolia to "put out the fire". In June 2025, the pro-Western Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erdene stepped down for corruption, but the newly appointed Zandanshatar still had to balance between the major powers.
Why does this small country sandwiched between China and Russia make Gubin so worried? Is it really possible for it to "betray" China and Russia?
Why is Mongolia so important: there are treasures underground and the sky above
When it comes to Mongolia, many people's first impression is grasslands, herdsmen, and horse-head fiddles. But this idea is too superficial.
Mongolia has an area of 1.56 million square kilometers, which is larger than Xinjiang, but has a population of only 3.6 million, which is less than the population of a district in Beijing. How sparsely populated is it? On average, there are less than 3 people per square kilometer, the lowest in the world.
But don't underestimate this place.
The treasures buried underground are enough to make the whole world jealous. There are 173 billion tons of coal reserves, tens of billions of tons of copper mines, rare earths, molybdenum, uranium, etc. Especially rare earths, which are now more precious than gold, and are indispensable for making chips and missiles.
The location is even more amazing.
It is adjacent to Russia's Siberia for more than 8,000 kilometers in the north and China's 4,677-kilometer border in the south. Completely surrounded by the two great powers of China and Russia, this is the "heartland" in geopolitics.
It is no exaggeration to say that whoever controls this place can influence the entire Eurasian continent.
From China's perspective, Mongolia is a "treasure pot" plus a "buffer zone".
In 2024, the trade volume between China and Mongolia was 18 billion US dollars, accounting for 80% of Mongolia's foreign trade. More than 90% of the 83.76 million tons of coal exported by Mongolia were sold to China. Half of the coking coal used by steel mills in North China and Northeast China was shipped from Mongolia.
But Mongolia does not only do business with China.
80% of its oil and natural gas are imported from Russia, and winter heating depends entirely on Russian supply. Although trade with the United States accounts for only 2%, the United States' influence in technology investment and mining development is rapidly increasing.
Speaking of this, we have to mention history.
During the Qing Dynasty, Outer Mongolia was under the jurisdiction of China for more than 200 years, and the political, economic and cultural ties were very close.
After the Xinhai Revolution in 1911, Outer Mongolia declared "independence" with the support of Tsarist Russia. During the Soviet period, Mongolia became a "satellite state" of the Soviet Union, and its political and economic model was completely copied from the Soviet model for 70 years. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1990, Mongolia began to implement a multi-party system and market economy, but it always felt that it was used to being controlled by big countries and wanted more "autonomy".
This historical experience has left the Mongolian government and people with a knot in their hearts: they don't want to rely entirely on any big country anymore. This is the psychological root of the "third neighbor" policy.
The United States' "boiling frog in warm water": 20 years of layout to see the real results
The United States has always been patient in geopolitics, and its layout in Mongolia has been in place for more than 20 years.
Now the effect is beginning to show.
Blinken's visit to Ulaanbaatar in August 2024 is not just a formality.
The United States has promised to significantly increase investment, focusing on mining and clean energy. What's even more ruthless is that the United States helped Mongolia design a trade route that "bypasses China and Russia" - going directly to the sea through the Busan Port in South Korea.
Although the cost is several times more expensive than going through Chinese and Russian ports, it gives Mongolia the psychological comfort of "not completely relying on China and Russia".
For Mongolia, this is like buying insurance, spending money to buy peace of mind. It is precisely because of the lessons learned from being controlled by big powers in history that Mongolia particularly cherishes this feeling of "diversity".
The military cooperation between the two sides seems insignificant, but the impact is not small.
Since 2003, the "Khan Quest" military exercise has been held every year, with the participation of the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
The Mongolian army has a total of only 12,000 people, less than one division of China, but the political signal released by this exercise is very clear: Mongolia must maintain a certain balance between big powers.
For Mongolia, the most powerful thing is the cultural infiltration of the United States.
The US Embassy has set up an "American Corner" project in Mongolia, building libraries, showing movies, and holding English training everywhere. It looks harmless to people and animals, but it has the greatest lethality.
Why do you say that? Just look at the effect.
Sixty percent of Mongolia's population is under 35 years old. These young people have watched American TV series and learned English since childhood, and they are particularly yearning for American life. There are more coffee shops in Ulaanbaatar than milk tea shops, and English training classes are everywhere.
According to data from 2024, the number of Mongolian students learning English is twice that of those learning Russian.
The changes in political concepts brought about by this cultural influence are more worthy of vigilance.
Young people are increasingly disappointed with their own political elites, and instead feel that the Western "democratic system" is better. According to data from Transparency International in 2023, Mongolia's integrity score is 33 points, ranking 116th among 180 countries, and the corruption problem is quite serious.
This disappointment was just taken advantage of by the United States.
When Blinken was asked by reporters in Ulaanbaatar about containing China, he answered slyly: "Our focus is on the vision of regional cooperation, which has nothing to do with China." It is obviously aimed at China and Russia, and it is said so high-soundingly.
In the final analysis, what the United States is doing is "boiling a frog in warm water".
It is not about pulling Mongolia away all at once, but slowly changing its ideas. Economic interests can still be discussed, but once cultural identity changes, it will be difficult to reverse it.
Mongolia wants to "have its feet on two boats": but will the boat capsize?
Faced with the wooing of three major powers, the Mongolian government is very shrewd: do not offend anyone and get benefits from all parties.
This is the legendary "sitting on the fence".
But from China's perspective, this approach is not small.
The new Prime Minister Zandanshatar is an old hand. Born in 1970, he has served as foreign minister and speaker of the parliament and knows a lot about diplomacy. After he came to power, he immediately showed goodwill to China and said that he wanted to deepen Sino-Mongolian relations.
But he turned around and said that the "third neighbor" policy would not change and that he would continue to cooperate with the West.
This approach of pleasing both sides may be useful in the short term, but it is dangerous in the long run. Why? Public opinion is changing.
Polls show that 60% of young Mongolians believe that they should "learn more from the West", and only 30% support "continuing to maintain good relations with China and Russia". Once this generational difference is transformed into political power, the consequences are serious.
The most telling example is the "Power of Siberia II" natural gas pipeline.
This large pipeline, which transmits 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year, was originally the highlight of China-Russia energy cooperation, and Mongolia could make a lot of money by transiting. But the negotiations dragged on for several years, and Mongolia's attitude became increasingly vague.
Why is this so? In the final analysis, they still want more bargaining chips. The Mongolian government thought: Since China and Russia need me so much, I will ask for more benefits. But the problem is that China and Russia's patience is limited.
In April 2025, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said something meaningful: "The pipeline will be built, the key is which route to take."
He clearly mentioned two options: transiting Mongolia or entering China directly from the Altai region.
This is equivalent to a warning to Mongolia: Don't think we can't do without you. China and Russia can completely take a detour. Although the cost is higher, it avoids being "choked" by a third party.
Mongolia's current dilemma is obvious: it cannot do without China and Russia economically, it yearns for the West culturally, and wants to strike a balance politically. But in the game between big countries, if a small country wants to "step on two boats", it depends on whether the boat is stable.
How China and Russia respond: Be patient but not without bottom line
For Mongolia's speculative mentality, China and Russia's strategy is very clear: pull if you can, push if you should.
From China's perspective, the policy towards Mongolia has always been relatively tolerant.
After all, the two countries have deep historical and cultural roots. During the Yuan Dynasty, the Mongolians also established a dynasty in China, and the national sentiment is there. Economic cooperation continues to strengthen, and the trade volume between China and Mongolia will reach a new high in 2024.
China has set up a RMB clearing bank in Mongolia to promote the de-dollarization of trade. Infrastructure construction is also progressing steadily, and railway, highway and power projects are being carried out.
In terms of cultural exchanges, China is also making efforts.
With 5 Confucius Institutes and multiple Confucius Classrooms, the number of people learning Chinese is increasing. Although the influence among young people needs to be improved, the profound heritage of Chinese culture and the development achievements of modern China are still attractive to the Mongolian people.
Russia's approach is more direct.
In September 2024, Putin visited Mongolia, reaffirmed traditional friendship, and signed a bunch of energy and military agreements. The relationship between Russia and Mongolia has a 70-year historical foundation, and the political, economic, and cultural ties established during the Soviet period still have an impact.
More importantly, Russia controls Mongolia's energy supply, and winter heating and industrial production cannot be separated from Russian oil and gas.
This is equivalent to strangling Mongolia's "neck". You can swing politically, but once the energy supply is cut off, you will be honest immediately. This is the cruelty of real politics.
But China and Russia are obviously also making the worst plan. The multi-route design of the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline is a signal. If Mongolia really "turns against the water", China and Russia can completely take a detour.
Behind this "two-handed preparation" strategy is a deep concern about the political direction of Mongolia. Once Mongolia really "changes color", it will be a heavy blow to the geopolitical security of China and Russia.
From China's perspective, this not only means the loss of an important resource supply base, but also the possibility of American forces directly infiltrating into China's northern hinterland.
In particular, traditional economic ties are no longer enough in the information age.
The values of young people are more susceptible to external influences, and China and Russia must work harder in this regard.
But this takes time, and time may not be on our side.
A new generation of political elites in Mongolia is growing up, and their values will largely determine the future direction of the country.
Professor Gubin's concerns are based on this understanding.
He saw the power of American cultural penetration and foresaw Mongolia's possible political shift.
The time window is shrinking. From China's perspective, we must act quickly, with both strategic patience and bottom-line thinking.
After all, in the cruel reality of great power games, today's "friends" may be tomorrow's "opponents."
Mongolia's choice is not only related to its own destiny, but also likely to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the entire Northeast Asia.
Gubin's warning is worth our deep consideration.
Every move of this small country may trigger a chain reaction on the chessboard of the game between major powers. China must be prepared.
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Published Date:2025-07-22