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Mongolia’s rating upgraded to B1 by Moody’s on stable growth www.investing.com
Moody’s Ratings has upgraded Mongolia’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, while maintaining a stable outlook.
The upgrade reflects expectations of more stable economic growth, supported by ongoing commodity diversification efforts and improved policy effectiveness, particularly in liability management and fiscal reforms.
Mongolia’s economy has shown reduced susceptibility to commodity price cycles, despite coal prices falling 27% in 2025 year-to-date following a 30% decline in 2024. Coal exports make up more than half of Mongolia’s overall exports.
Increasing copper exports have significantly offset the decline in coal exports. Output from the Oyu Tolgoi mine continues to rise as it approaches peak production in 2028, positioning Mongolia to meet global copper demand.
The country is also advancing exploration of other minerals, including gold and rare earths. According to the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry, Mongolia has identified 3.1 million tons of proven rare earth ore reserves.
Mongolia’s economy grew 5.1% in 2024 despite weak agricultural performance. Moody’s expects real GDP to increase to 5.5% this year and maintain similar rates in 2026.
The debt ratio has substantially decreased from over 90% of GDP in 2016 to an estimated 42.6% this year. However, Moody’s projects the fiscal deficit will widen to around 3% of GDP in 2025 and average between 4.5-6% from 2026-2028.
The rating agency expects Mongolia’s debt burden to increase to 48% of GDP by 2028, which remains consistent with B1-B2 rated peers.
The upgrade reflects expectations of more stable economic growth, supported by ongoing commodity diversification efforts and improved policy effectiveness, particularly in liability management and fiscal reforms.
Mongolia’s economy has shown reduced susceptibility to commodity price cycles, despite coal prices falling 27% in 2025 year-to-date following a 30% decline in 2024. Coal exports make up more than half of Mongolia’s overall exports.
Increasing copper exports have significantly offset the decline in coal exports. Output from the Oyu Tolgoi mine continues to rise as it approaches peak production in 2028, positioning Mongolia to meet global copper demand.
The country is also advancing exploration of other minerals, including gold and rare earths. According to the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry, Mongolia has identified 3.1 million tons of proven rare earth ore reserves.
Mongolia’s economy grew 5.1% in 2024 despite weak agricultural performance. Moody’s expects real GDP to increase to 5.5% this year and maintain similar rates in 2026.
The debt ratio has substantially decreased from over 90% of GDP in 2016 to an estimated 42.6% this year. However, Moody’s projects the fiscal deficit will widen to around 3% of GDP in 2025 and average between 4.5-6% from 2026-2028.
The rating agency expects Mongolia’s debt burden to increase to 48% of GDP by 2028, which remains consistent with B1-B2 rated peers.
Published Date:2025-10-17
