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Mongolia 'BB-' Long-Term Rating Affirmed; Outlook Stable www.montsame.mn
On October 8, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘BB-’ long-term and ‘B’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on Mongolia. The outlook on the long-term rating is stable.
Several core factors underpinned the decision to maintain Mongolia’s rating:
-Economic momentum is expected to be largely driven by rising copper production from Phase 2 of the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) project and steady coal exports to China. Due to robust export growth, narrow net external debt relative to current account receipts has experienced a share decline, projected to drop from 184% in 2020 to 58% by 2026.
-Mongolia’s economic growth over the next two to three years will likely outpace that of sovereign peers with similar average income levels.
-S&P noted that general government net debt stood at 29% of GDP as of 2025 and is projected to settle around 25% over the medium term, representing a sound level. The government’s debt servicing capacity remains relatively strong due to a stable tax revenue base and low debt-service costs. Notably, government interest payments relative to budget revenue have dropped significantly over the past decade and are expected to remain below 5% over the medium term.
-Fiscal prudence will be maintained by keeping the consolidated balanced budget deficit within 2% of GDP. Long-term efforts to minimize budget revenue volatility caused by commodity price fluctuations continue via accumulations in the fiscal stability fund and the wealth fund. Factoring in these fund accumulations, the consolidated budget balance is projected to record a surplus of 2.0% of GDP in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.
Within this latest announcement, Mongolia’s sovereign ratings from the three major international credit rating agencies stand as follows:
-S&P Global Ratings: “BB-, Stable” (Affirmed October 8, 2026)
-Fitch Ratings: “B+, Stable” (Affirmed August 19, 2026)
-Moody’s Investors Service: “B1, Stable” (Affirmed October 5, 2026)
According to the Government of Mongolia, maintaining these ratings amidst an unpredictable external environment underscores continued international confidence in Mongolia’s economic trajectory and policy stability.
Published Date:2026-10-11
