Investment advisors worry U.S. response to coronavirus is too little too late www.reuters.com

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment-advisors are increasingly worried that U.S. authorities are not be doing enough to prevent a widespread outbreak of coronavirus in the country, potentially adding further downside to already-battered markets.
Their criticisms include the number of people so far tested by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which some say is too small, the possible difficulties of imposing lockdowns on U.S. cities and concerns that the White House could bungle containment efforts.

The worries have magnified the uncertainty that has accompanied the coronavirus outbreak over the last several weeks, as investors scramble to adjust their portfolios to price in the virus’ potential for damage to the global economy and assess its further impact on asset prices.

The CDC states on its website that “as of Feb. 24, CDC teams are working with the Department of Homeland Security at 11 airports where all flights from China are being directed to screen travelers returning to the United States, and to refer them to U.S. health departments for oversight of self-monitoring.”

U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar said as of Thursday morning the CDC had tested 3,625 specimens for the fast-moving virus.

For some investors and analysts, those assurances ring hollow.

“Much of what we’ve seen about this virus has shaken confidence in governments,” said James Bianco, head of Chicago-based advisory firm Bianco Research.

His list includes doubts over China’s accuracy in counting cases, criticism over Japan’s handling of a cruise ship quarantine at one of its ports, and the comparatively small number of people that U.S. authorities have so far tested.

Worries over the growing number of cases outside China sent the S&P 500 into intraday correction territory on Thursday morning. Stocks took an earlier hit on Wednesday after health officials in Nassau County, New York, said they were monitoring 83 people who visited China and may have come in contact with the coronavirus. Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state has had no confirmed cases so far. [L2N2AQ192]

On Wednesday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump told Americans that the risk from coronavirus remained “very low,” and appointed Vice President Mike Pence to run the U.S. response to the looming global health crisis.

Bianco said he fears many investors are still complacent about how quickly the number of cases could multiply in the United States, as it has in countries such as Iran, Italy and South Korea.

He is advising his clients to tread lightly until the full extent of the outbreak is known.

“I would rather risk a lost opportunity by being out of the market or underweight and finding out that this is not a big deal, than being fully invested and worrying that this will get worse,” Bianco said.

‘TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF RISK’
Others are concerned over the consequences if the United States were forced to implement a lockdown similar to the one imposed by Chinese authorities on Hubei Province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak.

Wuhan, Hubei’s capital, imposed strict controls on movement of residents, then eased them, then later announced that the relaxation had been revoked. Such measures could be more difficult to enforce in the United States.

“Those of us sitting here in Hong Kong looking at financial markets think there is a tremendous amount of risk in the system,” said Simon Powell, equity strategist at Jefferies in Hong Kong.

Powell is particularly worried that there could be spread of the virus from people from countries outside China which were not subject to travel restrictions coming into the United States. He is particularly concerned about the outbreak in Iran.

Iran said on Thursday that its coronavirus death toll had risen to 26, by far the highest number outside China. The death rate among confirmed cases of the virus has been running at around 10% in Iran compared to around 3% elsewhere.

Powell also thinks that a Trump government is unlikely to choose reduced economic activity , writing in a recent research note that “our base case hypothesis is that a Trump government is unlikely to choose reduced economic activity, and supply chain disruption, so spread of the virus, if it were to emerge in the US, would be more likely.”

Others have pointed to what they believe are shortcomings in the CDC’s approach.

“The initial response from the U.S. has been targeted to mount a response to confirmed high-risk or infected cases, not directed to a more generalized public health containment,” said Wouter Jongbloed, head of policy and risk analysis at New York-based Exante Data.

With coronavirus having spread well outside China, CDC testing was “likely insufficiently effective in preventing a potential outbreak in the U.S.,” Jongbloed said.

Reporting by Megan Davies; Additional reporting by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Daniel Wallis

The Hu nominated for Heavy Music Awards 2020 www.montsame.mn

Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. Mongolian hunnu rock band ‘The Hu’ became one of the finalists for the fourth annual Heavy Music Awards. The band was nominated for ‘Best International Breakthrough Band’.

Rio to begin copper production at Winu in 2023 www.mining.com

Rio Tinto (ASX, LON, NYSE: RIO) plans to ramp up development of its Winu copper-gold project in Western Australia, with first production expected in 2023.

China's economy to grow 15% in Q2 as it recovers from coronavirus – JPMorgan www.rt.com

The world's second largest economy, China, will recover from the COVID-19 crisis to emerge stronger than ever, according to JPMorgan Chase's global economist Joseph Lupton.
Lupton told CNBC he is projecting negative four percent growth for the first quarter, when the coronavirus outbreak brought much of China's economy to a halt.

Netizens hail donation of 30,000 sheep from Mongolia www.globaltimes.cn

Mongolian President Khaltmaa Battulga on Thursday became the second foreign leader to visit China after the COVID-19 outbreak, following Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen who visited China on February 5, as he donated 30,000 sheep to China to support the Chinese people's fight against the virus.

Visit by Mongolian president shows deep friendship www.chinadaily.com.cn

China is making great progress in controlling the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, and it has full confidence and the capacity to win the battle against the disease, President Xi Jinping said on Thursday.

Xi made the remark while meeting with Mongolian President Khaltmaa Battulga at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Battulga's visit took place the day after the end of Mongolia's traditional White Moon festival holiday.

Noting that Battulga is the first foreign head of state to have visited China since the outbreak of the disease, Xi said that his visit demonstrates the great importance that the Mongolian president attaches to bilateral relations and his deep friendship toward the Chinese people.

The Chinese government and the Chinese people are making full efforts to fight the disease, Xi said, adding that China has received support and help from the Mongolian government and people.

China and Mongolia are close neighbors that help each other and stand together in difficult times, Xi said.

Xi stressed that the Communist Party of China and the Chinese government have paid great attention and taken the strictest and utmost measures to prevent and control the disease since its outbreak.

China is making great efforts to coordinate prevention and control of the disease with economic and social development, and it is trying its best to limit the impact of the disease as much as possible, Xi said.

China is resuming its economic production in an orderly manner in line with the different situations across the nation, paying attention to spring agricultural production, and is making efforts to ensure people's livelihoods, Xi said.

Xi pointed out that China has great potential in domestic consumption and strong industrial foundations, and the country will strive to achieve its economic goals for this year, especially the major tasks of securing the decisive victory of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and reducing poverty.

Based on the principle of building a community with a shared future for mankind, China is responsible for the Chinese people's safety and health and has a duty to safeguard global public health, Xi said.

China's open, transparent and responsible manner and its positive efforts to strengthen international cooperation on fighting the disease have won recognition from the World Health Organization and the international community, Xi said.

China will continue to enhance cooperation with all nations, including Mongolia, in handling the outbreak effectively and maintaining regional and global public health, Xi said.

China would like to consolidate mutual political trust with Mongolia, enhance Belt and Road cooperation, and jointly promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind, Xi added.

Battulga announced that Mongolia will donate 30,000 sheep to China, in addition to the funds it has already given to China. He presented a certificate to Xi about the donation of the sheep after their talks.

On behalf of the Mongolian government and people, Battulga expressed sincere sympathy for the Chinese people's suffering resulting from the outbreak.

Mongolia highly admires and appreciates China's timely response to the disease and the progress made in fighting the disease, he said.

Calling China a comprehensive strategic partner, Battulga said the Mongolian people would like to join hands with the Chinese people in fighting the disease, he said, adding that the Mongolian people have enthusiastically supported their government's decision to donate to China's battle against the disease.

He said that the Chinese people, led by Xi, will definitely win the battle against the disease and achieve the nation's goals for economic and social growth, he said.

Xi says China, Mongolia help each other in face of difficulties www.xinhuanet.com

BEIJING, Feb. 27 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping Thursday held talks with Mongolian President Khaltmaa Battulga at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Research Announcement: Moody's - Reform commitments and backing from creditors key to managing Mongolia’s upcoming debt obligations www.moodys.com

Moody's Investors Service says in a new report that the pressure on Mongolia's (B3 stable) credit profile will rise from 2021, as bonds worth $2.3 billion mature during 2021 – 2023. The country's ability to contain risks hinges on continued support from international creditors.

"Stronger commodity prices, disbursements from international lenders, and a steady flow of FDI have all supported Mongolia's debt payments over recent years," says Anushka Shah, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

However, refinancing needs will begin to mount in 2021 and spike in 2023, as bonds worth $2.3 billion mature.

"Assuming a broadly stable current account deficit and continued financing from international creditors, external risks should remain in line with the recent past," adds Shah.

Tighter fiscal and monetary policies have resulted in a significant build-up in buffers since 2015, with the current account deficit narrowing to 12.6% of GDP in 2019 from over 40% of GDP in 2011-13, and in an increase in foreign reserves. In addition, the country continues to benefit from a number of external funding agreements from both multilateral and bilateral lenders.

However, prospects for refinancing will hinge on the government's adherence to, and continued implementation of reforms, particularly on the fiscal front.

Moody's sees a likelihood of a loss of reform momentum, at least over the course of 2020, as parliamentary elections in June 2020 have already spurred an expansionary budget. There are also risks that the government's ongoing program with the IMF will lapse, given prolonged delays of tranche disbursements following the sixth review. The IMF program has anchored reform progress over recent years.

Strong growth dynamics remain a credit support. The coronavirus outbreak and a moderation in commodity prices will curb Mongolia's growth in 2020. But Moody's expects activity to recover in the second quarter and says that fundamental demand and supply dynamics for key mining exports of coal and copper should remain healthy, supporting growth and alleviating fiscal risks.

Subscribers can access the report "Government of Mongolia: External vulnerabilities continue to dominate credit profile" at: http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx…

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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

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Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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Associate Managing Director
Sovereign Risk Group
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US regulators to block Peabody, Arch Coal JV www.mining.com

The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has rejected Peabody Energy and Arch Coal’s plans to combine their operations in Wyoming and Colorado, saying it would limit competition and raise prices.

The joint venture, announced by the country’s two largest coal miners last year, would run seven mines in the Powder River Basin (PRB), where Peabody and Arch Coal accounted for over 65% of all the coal mined there in 2018.

The FTC has requested an administrative trial and, in the meantime, a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction for the deal, which could generate $120 million in annual cost savings for the companies over a decade.

“Whatever the product, the antitrust laws protect customers from mergers that lead to higher prices,” Ian Conner, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Competition, said in the statement. “This joint venture would eliminate the substantial head-to-head competition between the two largest coal miners in the United States, and that loss of competition would likely raise coal prices to power-generating utilities that provide electricity to millions of Americans.”

Peabody and Arch Coal replied they intend to challenge the FTC’s decision in the coming months, adding they will continue to pursue the JV.

“We have provided tremendous amounts of evidence to the FTC during an extensive review, fully demonstrating that coal … faces intense competition from natural gas and other alternate fuels,” Peabody chief executive officer, Glenn Kellow, said in a separate statement.

The two companies believe coal prices will bottom out in the first half of 2020 before rising in the second half as production declines and global consumption gains.

The International Energy Agency is anticipating a steady increase in demand for the fossil fuel in the next five years, as growing demand for electricity in developing countries outpaces a shift to cleaner sources of electricity in industrialized nations.

Weak fundamentals
Moody’s lead coal analyst, Benjamin Nelson, said that regardless of whether or not the venture can go ahead, business conditions for coal producers in the PRB will remain extremely challenging.

Nelson cited among the reasons for the bleak outlook an “ongoing secular decline in the demand for thermal coal, low natural gas prices encouraging switching in the near-to-medium term and far fewer opportunities to export coal compared to other coal basins in part due to social opposition in the Pacific Northwest.”

US government data released in early February show that production in the country’s top coal- region fell almost 14% in the last three months of 2019 to the lowest in over two decades.

The weak quarter capped a tumultuous year of mine shutdowns and bankruptcies in the Basin, including Blackhawk Mining, Blackjewel, Cambrian Holding Co., Cloud Peak Energy and New Trinity Coal. Two other miners, Mission Coal and Westmoreland Coal, went bust in October 2018

President of Mongolia to pay a visit to the People’s Republic of China www.montsame.mn